On March 6, 2025, US President Donald Trump 
Donald Trump Donald Trump is a former politician, businessman and American media personality, who was the 45th President of the United States between 2017 and 2021. Trump obtained a baccalaureate in economics in the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. Trump Hillary Clinton as losing republican popular vote. As president, Trump ordered the ban on traveling to citizens in several Muslim majority countries, has diverted military funding towards the construction of a wall on the American-Mexican border and has implemented a policy of separation of families. Trump has remained an eminent figure of the Republican Party and is considered a probable candidate for the 2024 presidential election President signed an executive decree establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and a Storage of American digital assets. This has marked a major step in the integration of digital assets in the American financial framework. However, the reserve currently manages only the bitcoin obtained through the packages of assets in criminal and civil affairs.
Despite its limited scope, speculation increases around a wider Trump Bitcoin reserve Plan – The one who reflects the structure of the strategic oil reserve.
Kalshi predicts 50% of a national bitcoin reserve in 2025
According to the Kalshi prediction market, there is a probability of 50% that Trump will go further and establishes a Bitcoin National Reserve This year. This reserve would contain bitcoin not acquired by confiscation and potentially include other cryptocurrencies. Above all, the Kalshi contract requires that the reserve be fully functional and operational, and not only announced in the concept.
Kalshi’s data shows a fluctuating feeling:
- 57.2% probability at the beginning of 2025
- 41.2% Low on January 9
- 70.6% Summit on March 6 (after the executive order of Trump)
Chronology: the movements of the Bitcoin and the Cryptography policy of Trump
What could a Bitcoin national reserve mean?
If Trump follows with an entirely operational Bitcoin National ReserveThis could point out a change in historical policy, positioning Bitcoin as a strategic and sovereign digital asset. Such a decision would be:
- Improve investors of confidence in American cryptography policies
- Accelerate regulatory clarity and institutional adoption
- Report America leadership in global digital finance
However, the result depends on the execution, political alignment and international response.
