Bitcoin (BTC) begins in June with a BTC price action in a dangerous place – can buyers preserve key levels of the Haussier market?
-
Bitcoin traders are preparing for new volatility as the highest monthly contrasts with growing bets of a retest of $ 100,000.
-
The weakness of the labor market and the Fed policy are back under a microscope because inflation diverges interest rates.
-
The last price volatility led investors through the Hodler spectrum to rethink their exposure to the BTC.
-
The retail trade only wakes up, but Bitcoin whales already have a conventional trend reversal behavior.
-
Can profitability feed another race up to $ 120,000?
Bitcoin RSI Tainsts best monthly closes
Bitcoin managed to “save” the weekly candle near the skin of his teeth, capping a week of retracement, which totaled 8%at some point.
At around $ 105,700, Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data show, the weekly fence came above a key level from December 2024 – the one who declared the analysis had to hold.
We owned more than $ 104,500 on the weekly fence. Bullish on this subject. pic.twitter.com/anfq88qeqt
– Crypto Tony (@Cryptony__) June 2, 2025
The results, however, were soft-amer, with a downward divergence playing on the relative force index (RSI).
Classic indicator of trend resistance, RSI has printed a lower top as the price strikes and withdraws from its highest levels.
“The downward weekly divergence has locked itself – and a potential lower retaining retaining here,” warned the popular merchant Jelle in an article on X.
“Big Day to come for Bitcoin, testing lower levels is not improbable as long as the black line is not recovered.”
Can finally seal 11% of gains and mark the highest monthly fence of all time for BTC / USD despite the end of the comedrown.
From now on, Corglass resources surveillance show that the majority of the liquidity of the command book is above, not below, the price.
In his latest X thread, his CRYPUNUVEVO colleague used liquidity to predict a possible rebound at $ 113,000.
“We will finally strike this range. Ideally $ 100,000-> $ 113,000, “he said about his favorite BTC price trajectory.
Powell under spotlights like inflation and nour diverge
US unemployment in the United States and the federal reserve policy are the two key elements of the radar for traders of risky assets this week.
The labor market strength is under control after recent data advice has challenged the Fed capacity to maintain “longer” interest rates.
The printing index in April of the personal consumption index (PCE), which came to expectations or lower, confirmed at the same time the slowdown in inflationary pressure.
“The level of moderation of inflation means that the interest rate of short-term federal funds has been the highest above the PCE since its entry into the financial crisis in 2008”, writes Commercial Company Mosaic in the last edition of its regular bulletin, “The Market Mosaic”.
“This could explain why Trump summoned the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, this week to put pressure on the central bank towards reduction rates.”
The first meeting of American president Donald Trump with Powell last week did not do much to stimulate bets that current policy could change in the near future. The latest data from the Fedwatch tool in the CME group show the markets rejecting the possibility of a rate drop before September.
Powell himself is expected to speak when the Fed Board’s 75th anniversary of the 75th anniversary of Washington DC on June 2.
The continuous mosaic asset identifies a potential Bitcoin rear wind in the form of a strong force of the US dollar in the context of the uncertainty of the commercial price.
The US dollar index (DXY) fell below 99 after overthrowing the three -digit border from resistance support last month.
“If the drop in Dxy is accelerating after losing the 100 level, this could also point out long -term concerns about the prospects of economic growth and the American budgetary condition,” adds Mosaic.
“This could serve as other bullish catalyst for precious metals and bitcoin.”
Hodler flows suggest a “transitional market”
Crowown of around 8% bitcoin of the summits of all time has already triggered a change in the behavior of investors.
While preserving $ 105,000 at the last weekly closure, BTC investors did not keep the exposure levels observed at the height of the increase in May.
In his latest research, the Onchain Analytics Cryptochant platform reveals three signs that Hodlers have started to reduce risks.
“These are in particular the outings of important school students from Binance, a decrease in the interest of the long -term holder (LTH) and contrasting accumulation models between the various cohorts of wallet”, the contributor Amr Taha sums up in one of his blog articles “Quicktake”.
Binance Stablecoin Orips Flows operated $ 1 billion at the end of May – potentially reflecting the desire of traders to cover themselves against risks.
“Stablecoin Netflows are an essential liquidity indicator; Negative Netflows suggest that traders move from trade funds, ”says Taha.
At the same time, long -term Bitcoin (LTH) holders – entities for six months or more – saw their ceiling made decrease until the end of the month. The ceiling made refers to the combined value of all the LTH parts measured by the price to which they have moved for the last time.
“The combination of withdrawals of heavy stables, reduces accumulation and changing cohort behavior signals a market in transition”, concludes cryptocurrency.
“Whether this opens the way for a cooling period, a healthy consolidation or a renewed dynamic will depend on how the new capital is entering the system and if retail buyers can support the current gathering without institutional strengthening.”
Whales rethink the accumulation
A similar scenario takes place among the Bitcoin whales.
“The entities holding between (1K ~ 10K) BTC gradually reduced their exposure as the price of bitcoin increased from $ 81,000 to $ 110,000, systematically distributing their assets in a gradual way throughout the rally progression,” reports cryptocurrency.
The retail holders, having ignored the return of Bitcoin until the new heights of all time now reach the whales by accumulating “at the top”.
Whale changes have not gone unnoticed elsewhere. In its latest bihebdomedary report on May 30, the Santiment Research Cabinet described “clear signs of taking advantage”.
“A high whale activity during markets in the market can sometimes indicate distribution, or smart money by making profits. We have always seen the transaction peaks of major whales suddenly mark the low prices (like the one we saw on April 7, 2025) or pricing (that is to say, May 22, 2025), “he wrote.
“Consider them as fantastic inversion indicators, with the latest signal showing a clear profit.”
Santiment suggested looking at the crypto-market feeling for advice on the direction that the price could be held in June.
“We saw the feeling of going from euphoric to fear in a few days, and prices have followed these emotions with an almost perfect timing,” he noted.
After dropping almost 25% in two days last week, the Crypto Fear & Greed index is now 64/100, marking a return to the “greed” territory.
Lucrative advice at $ 120,000 “local” top “
If the Haussier market scene is a return, the bets are already on the place where the next target upwards – and the local high – could be.
In relation: How much can the price of bitcoin?
Last week, ONCHAIN’s analysis company, Glassnode, moderated Hodler’s profitability to delimit the prices to which the profit taking should again suspend the price of the BTC. For this, he used the standard deviation on the market value ratio / value made (MVRV).
“The MVRV ratio compares the price of the BTC market at the base of the average cost of investors-helping to assess when investors have unpaid profits outside of dimension,” he explained in a thread X on May 30.
“We now negotiate between + 0.5σ ($ 100.2K) and + 1σ ($ 119.4K), an area that has often preceded local peaks.”
BTC Price Action could thus preserve $ 100,000 in support, contrasting with other downward objectives which include a closer yield to the bar of $ 90,000.
“While $ BTC is close to the overheated territory, it has not yet crossed the MVRV + 1σ strip – a level which historically triggers the gain in mass profit,” added Glassnode.
“Until then, the market can still have room to run before investors’ gains become” too good not to sell “.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.
