96.9% Chance of No Interest Rate Hike

The next FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for July 19, 2025, and all eyes are on the Central Bank’s decision. Veteran merchant Matthew Dixon has made a sensational complaint on X, declaring that there are 96.9% of chance that the Fed will maintain the rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% and no probability of rates.

Dixon also noted a minor chance of 3.1% of a rate drop of 25 bps, but he pointed out that the current position of the Fed is firmly pending. Its prediction aligns with the broader feeling of the market, which suggests that the central bank is content to observe new economic data before making policy changes.

The fomc meeting of June shows a change of feeling of the Fed towards fewer cuts

The previous FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, ended with the Fed keeping its stable reference rate. Interestingly, while the Fed dot plot continued to report two cuts later in the year, an increasing number of civil servants – seven against four before – do not know any other reduction in 2025. This growing hesitation reflects a continuous concern concerning sticky inflation, even if the number of titles has cooled.

The last real rate drop took place on December 18, 2024, when the Fed reduced the rate of 25 base points. It was the third cup of a series that started in September 2024, when the Fed executed a surprise cup of 50 base points, followed by another cup of 25 base points in November.

Economic data does not suggest any emergency for the Action of the Fed

At the heart of this decision -making is the trend of inflation. After starting the year at 3%, American inflation fell regularly to a minimum of 2.3% in April, before going up to 2.7% in June. This suggests that although inflation has moderate, it is not yet under control.

The American unemployment rate has remained relatively stable. From 4% in January, it increased to 4.1% in February and oscillated around 4.2% in May, before recovering at 4.1% in June. This level indicates a cooling, but will not collapse the labor market – work, which gives the place of the Fed to be patient.

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Trump targets the fed chair

Beyond economic indicators, the Fed faces increasing political heat. President Donald Trump repeatedly criticized President Jerome Powell, urging the aggressive declines 1% To stimulate growth and reduce government loan costs. Powell, however, has remained firm, declaring that the Fed will continue to make data -based decisions, regardless of political pressure.

This confrontation between the executive power and the central bank attracted attention on a global scale, in particular given the proximity of the electoral cycle of 2026.

Cryptographic markets welcome the stability of the rate, says Matthew Dixon

Matthew Dixon believes that a break in rate increases is slightly optimistic for risky assets, including crypto. No surprise expected from the Fed, the market probably has a price in the constant political position.

Historically, stable or decreasing interest rates support Bitcoin and Altcoins, as lower yields encourage risk taking. Cryptographic markets tend to suddenly react to unexpected nourished pivots, but in this case, the prospects seem calm, at least for the moment. While the Fed heads for its July 19 meeting, the message of markets and initiates like Dixon is clear: no change is to come. Inflation is manageable, the use is stable and the Fed seems comfortable to stay on a break. While political tensions continue to simmer, Powell’s team seems unlikely to act under pressure.

Faq