The main dishes to remember:
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The ether perpetual term volume has exceeded Bitcoin, signaling a major change in the interest of the market.
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A downward divergence of RSI points to short -term exhaustion.
Ether (ETH) was negotiated just below the resistance of $ 4,000 since December 2025 and the merchants are not sure if it will be crossed anytime soon. Despite the difficulty of overcoming $ 4,000, a key target for bulls is located at the price band made + 1 while active, currently oscillating nearly $ 4,500. The metric follows the cost of average ethn, actively changing hands on the network.
Glassnode data indicated that this level acted as a ceiling during the March 2024 cycle and the 2020-20121 cycle. A broken broken above this line has previously triggered a rapid ascending momentum, but also includes the risk of overheating and structural volatility.
The momentum is also reflected in the future markets of ETH. Cointelegraph reported that the perpetual ether future has exceeded bitcoin in the domination of the volume for the first time since 2022, marking the “greater” change in trade focusing towards the never recorded ETH. Likewise, the Byzantine Pseudonym Trader General recently revised its short -term perspectives, declaring,
“I think I’m wrong for ETH to get a short -term drawback. It’s too strong, refuses to print a significant correction … It looks like a just sending moment.”
In support of this story, Ether’s liquidation cards reveal a dense group of short liquidations stacked just above $ 4,000. A clean movement above this threshold could liquidate up to $ 930 million in positions, potentially feeding a vertical movement around $ 4,500.
Related: this is why some Ethereum traders expect the ETH price to reach $ 16,000 this cycle
The downward divergences increase the short -term prudence for the ETH
While the bullish momentum dominates the story, a key technical signal could derail the current rally. On the four -hour and one day deadlines, the Prix d’Ether has printed new local heights, but the relative force index (RSI) has not confirmed this decision, leading to lower divergences.
The lowering divergences could be an early sign of buyers’ exhaustion, resembling models in the previous local summits. In zoom out, the daily graphic reveals a persistent downward divergence that has not completely resolved since ETH exceeded $ 3,500. A short -term decline to key support areas cannot be excluded if the price fails to exceed $ 4,000 with a convincing volume.
If a downward correction takes place, the immediate support range on the lower time laps remains below $ 3,700, where a difference of fair narrow value (FVG) is observed.
However, a persistent bearish pressure could lead to the ether testing its long -term FVG between $ 3,200 and $ 3,300, leading to a downstream structure rupture.
Related: the largest volume bias for ETH confirms the pivot in Altcoins: Glassnode
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.
