Key points to remember:
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Bitcoin is expected to end October in the red, breaking a six-year “Uptober” streak.
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Traders are divided, with some fearing a significant correction ahead, while others still anticipate new highs in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to end October in the red for the first time in seven years, with traders divided on whether BTC will continue its downtrend into November.
Bitcoin ends the “Uptober” streak
After six consecutive years of “Uptober” gains, Bitcoin is expected to break the streak this year.
October is often considered an affectionate nickname because it has generated some of the best monthly returns for Bitcoin over the past decade, since 2013, with only two red Octobers in 2014 and 2018.
This record is reinforced by six consecutive years of gains from 2019 to 2024.
Related: Bitcoin not ‘end goal,’ says Riot as BTC production jumps 27%
Things are expected to turn around in 2025, as Bitcoin trades down 3.35% in October, with only a few hours left before the end of the month.
“Last day of the month, we need a strong green candle today, otherwise we will see our first red October close in 7 years,” analyst Jelle said in an article on X.
October’s losses were magnified by a mid-month flash crash triggered by U.S.-China tariff threats, and the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday did little to improve investor sentiment.
“October turned red for the first time in 7 years! » TraderAAG said in a post, adding:
“The crypto market has humbled many traders this month – momentum has faded and confidence has been shaken.”
Fellow Crypto analyst Damus said the volatility Bitcoin experienced this month was “not normal” as October is historically the second best month of the year for BTC.
There’s nothing “normal” about it #BTC Volatility
October is statistically the 2nd best month of the year for #BTC
It’s the worst October since the 2018 bear market
and only the 3rd Red October since 2013 pic.twitter.com/zVjvJH1was
– CRYPTO Damus (@AstroCryptoGuru) October 31, 2025
November uncertain?
While some traders said a red October was “just a setup for an even bigger rally in November,” others believe Bitcoin’s bull cycle has been shaken and may be coming to an end.
The last time BTC ended October in the red was in 2018, and “November saw a brutal 36.57% decline,” analyst Crypto Rover said in a Friday X article, adding:
“Should we be worried this time?” »
“What does a weak October mean for Bitcoin? » asked author and analyst Timothy Peterson in his latest article on X, adding that there is basically “no correlation between October and the following months.”
However, Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter growth generally slows after a weak October, Peterson added.
“Bitcoin’s 3-month return after a weak October averages 11% (2016-); for a strong October, it is 21%.”
November is historically the best month for Bitcoin, averaging 46% over 12 years starting in 2013. This makes the period between October and December the best quarter for BTC price rises, with average gains of 78%, according to CoinGlass data.
Looking at recent years, Bitcoin rose approximately 57% in Q4 2023 and 48% in Q4 2024. The rally was more exponential in 2017 with gains of 480% between October 1 and December 1.
Even in down cycles, like the losses of -42% in 2018 and -15% in 2022, they were outliers. Regardless, the last quarter of the year is always marked by significant developments.
If history is to be believed, Bitcoin’s price action could completely reverse in November, reaching $150,000 by the end of 2025.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.
