Bitcoin fell 1.41% to $ 83,437 after Trump’s pricing bomb shook the markets. With a 24 -hour range between $ 88,466 and $ 82,182, traders are preparing for more turbulence to come! But Arthur Hayes keeps an eye on a crucial level. He warns that if BTC has more than $ 76.5,000 until April 15 – the day of the tax, the market could stabilize. But beyond the short-term bloodbath, Hayes sees an upcoming massive decision, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $ 250,000 by the end of 2025.
Arthur Hayes thinks that Bitcoin’s current volatility is linked to the “Liberation Day”, probably referring to tax -related sales.
The role of the Fed in the Bitcoin boom
Hayes thinks that President Trump’s choice for the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, will pressure the president of Fed, Jerome Powell, to restart the printing of money. His latest blog article, the BBC, argues that Powell will have no choice but to return to quantitative relaxation (QE) to finance the growing debt of the American government. With fewer foreign buyers for US treasury bills, especially China, Hayes says that Fed and United States banks will have to intervene.
Its mathematics are simple: if the economy increases to 5% (3% of real GDP and inflation by 2%), but that the government continues to borrow 3% of GDP each year, the debt accumulates faster than the economy. Hayes warns that without lower yields or a major buyer for treasury bills, the debt / GDP ratio will become uncontrollable.
Powell’s dilemma: holding firm or yielding?
While Powell has resisted the softening so far, Hayes points to signs of submission. The Fed reduced rates in September 2024 to help Kamala Harris during the campaign, and Powell recently hinted at the slowdown in the Fed balance sheet reduction. Hayes maintains that it is indeed the QE of the Treasury – expressly on what Bitcoin prosperous.
In addition, Bessent suggested that relaxing banking rules after 2008 could release billions for cash purchases. The Fed has already slowed its deployment of treasury bills of $ 25 billion to $ 5 billion per month a change in annual liquidity of $ 240 billion. If the Fed pivota completely the QE, Hayes expects more money to flood the market, which has increased Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin path towards six figures and beyond
Hayes compares this configuration to the overvoltage of 30% Gold after QE1 in 2008-2010. He maintains that Bitcoin, as a non -sovereign active, will react even more explosively to an increase in the liquidity of the Fiat. The BTC bouncing already $ 76.5,000, it thinks that the next stop is six figures, with $ 250,000 for the end of the year. According to his forecasts, BTC reaches $ 110,000 before reviewing $ 76.5,000. If the Fed lights the monetary printer, Hayes says that the Bitcoin rocket is ready to be launched.
