World Bank Warns of Rising Poverty in Nigeria Through 2027, As Faith in Tinubu’s Economic Direction Wanes

The World Bank has projected a dark perspective for the Nigeria fight against poverty, warning that the country’s poverty rate will increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027, a projection that many Nigerians interpret as a vote of non -confidence in the economic trajectory of the current administration – despite the previous congratulations of the bank for the fat but painful but painful but painful Tinubu.

The projection is part of the latest edition of Africa’s Pulse, the flagship economic update of the Bank for Sub -Saharan Africa, published during the current spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank of Washington, DC

While the bank has recognized marginal gains in the non -oil sectors of Nigeria, in particular during the last quarter of 2024, it warns that deeper structural problems – ranging from budgetary fragility to persistent dependence on oil – will continue to undermine poverty reduction efforts. More overwhelming, however, is the involvement that the current political leadership is unlikely to raise the Nigerians of difficulties as soon as it is.

“Poverty in countries rich in resources and fragile – in particular major economies such as Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo – should increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” said the report.

Reforms without relief

At the heart of this worsening of poverty, economic policies were introduced by President Bola Tinubu, who assumed his functions in May 2023.

But these reforms, although greeted on paper, triggered an acute crisis in the cost of living. The prices of gasoline have more than tripled, inflation has climbed beyond 30% and the Naira has considerably weakened. The consequences have been serious for ordinary Nigerians, especially since wages remain stagnated and public services deteriorate.

Millions of people have slipped into deeper poverty following these political shocks, which caused generalized dissatisfaction. Food prices have disturbed out of the reach of many households, and unemployment remains stubbornly high. Even sectors like agriculture once being considered as a cushion against oil volatility, insecure, logistics and inflation breakdowns were hard.

Two years after Tinubu’s first mandate, Nigeria’s economic prospects remain troubled, without sign of immediate improvement. The World Bank’s warning is now interpreted by many Nigerians as a subtle reprimand for government failure to cushion the impact of its reforms or provide inclusive growth.

The shadow of Buhari’s inheritance

The deepening of poverty also reflects the cumulative effects of political inertia and mismanagement during the administration of former president Muhammadu Buhari. Under Buhari, Nigeria has scored two recessions, while inflation and debt increased. The infrastructure has stagnated and the budget pads have been exhausted.

As Tinubu took office, the economy was already in force – covered by a massive debt profile, unsustainable subsidies and an swollen public sector. However, rather than providing immediate relief or a progressive path to stability, reforms under the Tinubu watch have so far amplified economic distress.

“This follows a well -established scheme by which the richness of resources combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates – for 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non -fragile countries rich in resources,” said the World Bank report.

The classification of Nigeria as rich in resources and institutionally fragile underlines the seriousness of its challenges. According to the bank, sub -Saharan Africa remains shelters 80% of the 695 million extreme poor in the world, half of the 560 million poor in the region concentrate in only four countries, including Nigeria.

A Hope of a GRAND

There is growing skepticism among economic analysts and civil society groups that the current trajectory of Nigeria will change without radical reptetion of priorities. The World Bank itself, while approving Tinubu reforms in previous reports, now seems more prudent – calling Nigeria to improve budgetary management and build a “stronger budgetary contract” with its citizens.

“Governments must focus on improving budget management and the creation of a stronger budgetary contract with citizens to promote inclusive economic development and long -term poverty reduction,” said the report.

However, for many, these recommendations echo the previous opinions that have embodied. The question for Nigerians is no longer if the current economic path is difficult – it is if it leads to better. So far, signs are not encouraging.

Unless politicians go from structurally theory structure to be human and inclusive in practice, fear is that the most vulnerable in Nigeria will continue to bear the weight of reforms motivated by the elites which seem detached from realities on the ground.

With global institutions such as the World Bank now providing for an increase in poverty, even after approving the Tinubu administration reform game book, the cracks in the Nigeria economic strategy become more difficult to ignore.