The cryptography market buzzes to talk about an Altcoin season, but a leading analyst says that the real rally will only come after Ethereum will have reached a new summit of all time.
According to Benjamin Cowen, the renowned crypto analyst, a real Altcoin season, like those observed in late 2017 and 2021, depends on three key conditions. The first is for Ethereum not only to break your top of all time (ATH), but to maintain a lasting price above. The second is a drop in the domination of Bitcoin. And the third is the emergence of clear signs of the rotation of the cryptography market.
Cowen stresses that Ethereum movement is the most important factor to trigger a major Altcoin season. He thinks that current calls for an Altcoin season are premature because Ethereum has not yet reached a sustainable ATH.
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Cowen expects Ethereum could briefly exceed the $ 5,000 mark, but must “check” with its 21 -week exponential mobile average (EMA) during a correction to build a robust rally.
Cowen also thinks that an Altcoin season is unlikely in October. Historically, the domination of Bitcoin experienced its highest monthly increase in October, increasing on average by 5%. He says that the market should only expect a season of Altcoin after the start of the domination of Bitcoin and a clear rotation in the Altcoins begins.
Cowen also shared his prospects for the top of the current bull cycle. He explained that past cycles tended to peak in the fourth quarter of the year following a reduction in half, a model seen in 2013, 2017 and 2021.
This suggests that the peak of the current cycle will probably arrive at the fourth quarter of this year. In terms of days, the current rally has 1,041 days, while the two previous cycles exceeded 1,059 and 1,067 days, respectively.
Cowen forecasts for the upcoming bear market
Cowen estimates that a weekly price drop below the 50 -week Bitcoin (SMA) simple mobile average could point out the end of the cycle. With the SMA of 50 weeks currently at around $ 98,000, Cowen says that it will remain optimistic as long as Bitcoin remains above this line.
Cowen expects the peak of the current Bull Run to arrive at the fourth quarter of this year, followed by a Bitcoin bears market in 2026.
However, he predicts that the next slowdown will be less extreme than the markets of previous bears, with a decrease in configuration of around 70%.
