Arthur Hayes doesn’t care when his Bitcoin predictions are totally wrong

The co -founder of Bitmex and billionaire Bitcoin, Arthur Hayes, is known to make important, daring -and sometimes controversial -price forecasts, and says that it does not disconcert it when it is wrong.

“Nothing really happens,” said Hayes to Magazine, who asked if he is worried when his Bitcoin predictions fall flat.

Win or lose, Hayes does not sweat his calls

The youngest African-American billionaire in history is the first to admit that most of his price calls do not shit. “I’m wrong and I was most mistaken,” he laughs.

“I don’t know why people hesitate to do so; It doesn’t really matter at the end of the day. ”

“If you are generally right, you are well,” adds the former 40 -year -old investment banker.

Hayes is quite frank with his calls; He does not hide them if he is right or wrong.

In September, Hayes – now the director of investments of the venture capital company he co -founded, Maelstrom Fund – made a Bitcoin call in the short term, connecting it to the sliding Japanese yen. However, things did not happen as expected during this particular weekend, and Bitcoin was held strong.

Fair Play to Hayes; He later possessed it on X, publishing: “I was wrong.”

“It’s time to exchange same dogshit,” said Hayes. Likewise, on March 24, Hayes said that Bitcoin would reach $ 110,000 before he hates $ 76,500. But just a month later, on April 9, Bitcoin increased to $ 76,500.

Of course, credit where it is due; Hayes sometimes also succeeds. In December, Hayes predicted a slowdown in the crypto and a “vicious sale” after the inauguration of the January 20 of the American president Donald Trump … and he was there.

Probably because over the years, Bitcoin Og, raised from New York, has developed a super secret method to find its end -of -year price objectives:

“Choose round numbers that humans like.”

Hayes is close to $ 250,000 Bitcoin Call for 2025

His latest call is that Bitcoin will reach $ 250,000 by the end of this year and is convinced that Bitcoin will not see another match of $ 70,000 on the way.

“I really don’t see that there will be a great binary risk at the moment that could frighten the markets, and people will throw risks that would bring us to these levels anytime soon,” said Hayes.

That said, Hayes is not on board with Bitcoin calls of $ 1 million super at the ball, like the founder of Jan3, Samson Mow, are possible by the end of the year.

“I think it will happen before the end of 2028; I don’t think this will happen this year, ”says Hayes.

However, he does not rush to make short -term predictions anytime soon. “I don’t know, we will see, it’s really dependent,” he says. “I generally try to do them if there is a configuration where everyone thinks in a way and I think in another way,” he says.

Unlike most budding business geniuses on Crypto X, Hayes actually knows his business – he graduated from the University of Pennsylvania in 2008 with a BA in economics. Barely six years later, in 2014, he was only 28 years old when he co -founded the giant of Crypto Bitmex derivatives alongside Ben Delo and Samuel Reed.

Hayes reflects on the period of home detention of his life

In 2020, Hayes left Bitmex after the United States Ministry of Justice charged him, with Delo, Reed and Gregory Dwyer, for having allegedly violated the Bank’s Secret Act.

Hayes and Delo pleaded guilty in February 2022, admitting that they “fail voluntarily[ed] To establish, implement and maintain an anti-flowage program ”in exchange.

He ended up spending six months in home detention, confined to his house. It was a difficult period, but Hayes also saw the positive points.

“It was null must have been a place where you could not leave and all this for six months, but I was in Miami; Fortunately, it was not a prison cell, ”said Hayes.

In March, US President Donald Trump forgave the four former Bitmex leaders.

Despite the entire legal mess, Hayes remains one of the most respected bitcoins in the world. It is treated as a celebrity of the list A during the crypto conferences, and even with its successful history, people always pay serious attention when it makes a price prediction.

Hayes now lives life in his own words

Hayes can afford to make daring predictions because, unlike many crypto leaders who stick to safe predictions, it is already a life of several billion dollars in its own terms.

And it was the Hayes plan from the start.

“I have always entered this game while trying to control my time,” he says. Hayes admits that his life is comfortable enough at the moment. “I train like two to three hours a day, I read a lot of books, then, you know, write here and there,” he said.

While Hayes is doing the bulk of work in the gymnasium, he says that his team at the Maelstrom Fund does most of the company’s business, “traveling the world for decent things to do”.

He admits that he is working here and there for the fund, but he likes to live the big life.

“I know that I am perfectly happy that I can, you know, play tennis when I want, go skiing, all this kind of thing,” he said, adding:

“This is not really the number of bitcoins I have or how much, you know, money in my bank account or in my wallet. It is really, you know, can I go for my friends or ski for six months if I want.”

Will the United States government really buy bitcoin?

It was appropriate to ask Hayes what his digital prediction for the United States was to really buy Bitcoin for its strategic bitcoin reserve, which Trump signed in March.

“I would say it’s a 1%chance,” he says.

“I always have of the same opinion that they will not sell the 200,000 bitcoin they have seized, but I do not see the US government print money to buy Bitcoin,” he adds.

Even if other countries adopt a Bitcoin reserve, Hayes claims that 200,000 BTC are already worth “how many billions of dollars”. So, from the United States point of view, this will probably not trigger many FOMO compared to other nations.

“Everyone, China probably has a similar amount, but they have extracted it. So I think that the more likely countries will exploit Bitcoin rather than print money, then take printed money and buy bitcoin, assuming that they are a deficit nation,” he said.

“It’s a little different if you really generate income as a nation,” he says.

Surprisingly, Hayes has never been a defender of the American reserve Bitcoin. On May 1, Hayes said in an interview that he “was not really in the entire strategic reserve situation”.

At the time, he said it was difficult to imagine a “properly elected” politician openly announcing that the government plans to print money to buy bitcoin when the popular story is a bunch of Bitcoin Bros who go to the club. »»

Bitcoin cash companies will become “less important”

Hayes also shared his forecasts on Bitcoin cash companies, speculating that more recent companies will become more redundant.

“I think they will become less and less important because these professions become a little more saturated,” explains Hayes.

“All the consequences of these cash companies, at least if it is on a market that already has one, they do not do so well, but it is more difficult to generate a non -dilutive accumulation of Bitcoin,” explains Hayes.

He says that most cash companies will make a rights offer that will decrease the percentage of ownership by action, then use the product to buy Bitcoin, which is a “very dilutive strategy”.

“It is difficult to continue to reproduce this, especially in an almost saturated market like the United States, perhaps on other markets where it does not have micostrategy, so you can do it several times,” he said.

The FNB Bitcoin will prevail over Bitcoin cash companies

Hayes is more optimistic about the negotiated funds in Bitcoin exchange; However, he has no prediction of the quantity of money that will flow into the FNB by the end of the year.

“I think it will continue to have entries simply because it is the simplest way for anyone who has, like traditional fiat assets, to deploy in crypto,” explains Hayes.

“They don’t have to worry about the guard. It is a replica one for one. “

He predicts that since the managers of Trust Spot Bitcoin ETF funds – and that more and more regulators and banks allow funds to invest them – they will obviously “suck the capital” far from Bitcoin Treasury companies.

“As a retail trade [investor],, [they’ll be thinking] Well, it’s another suction cup that will pay a bonus to do the easiest thing to buy bitcoin, ”he says.

What are the biggest unknowns for Bitcoin?

When asked if he saw short -term risks of the Bitcoin price, Hayes underlines the possibility of an eruption world conflict.

“Obviously, if there is a kind of world war,” explains Hayes. But if a large -scale world war had broken out, it is not certain that the price would increase or more.

“Bitcoin could very well do or could hurt enough. Who knows what will happen in this situation?” Said Hayes.

It pushes the common fear among many bitcoins that quantum IT could break the security of Bitcoin.

“I think there are so many people focused on this particular problem that I don’t think it will ultimately be a problem for Bitcoin,” he said.

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Ciaran Lyons

Ciaran Lyons is an Australian journalist Crypto. He is also a standing actor and was presenter of radio and television on Triple J, SBS and the project.