Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Bitmex and CIO at Maelstrom, believes that the global financial system is undergoing a major change that could propel bitcoin to the million dollars.
According to Hayes, the increase in trade tensions between the United States and China accelerate the rupture of long-standing economic standards, opening the door to neutral assets like Bitcoin to occupy the stage.
How the American-china standoff could stimulate the demand for bitcoin in the change of financial order
In a post of April 5, Hayes hypothesized that the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Chinese Yuan (USDCNY) could increase to 10.00.
He assigned this to the probable refusal of the Chinese president of President Xi Jinping to modify the country’s economic management to appease American requests, in particular under the aggressive commercial position of President Donald Trump.
“The USDCny goes to 10.00 BC, there is no way that Xi Jinping agrees to change China in the way necessary to appease Trump. It is the Super Bazooka BTC must go up quickly to $ 1 million,” wrote Hayes on Twitter.
During last week, the global financial markets were in advance following the Trump administration’s decision to impose a coverage rate of 10% on all imports. China, faced with even higher samples up to 34%, responded with its own series of reprisals that should start on April 10.
However, Trump doubled the confrontation, rejecting China’s reaction as a mistake.
“China has played badly, they panicked – the only thing they can’t afford to do!” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
While this political posture continues, Hayes sees deeper risks brewing below the surface. According to him, the current tariff war could undermine the world role of treasury bills and American actions.
For decades, the United States has exported dollars by managing trade deficits, while foreign nations have recycled these dollars into American financial assets. According to Hayes, this system may no longer be durable.
If countries cease to accumulate dollars, their request for American bonds and shares will decrease. Some may even start selling reserves to protect their savings.
Hayes noted that even a reversal of Trump’s policy would not restore confidence, because world leaders may no longer trust the stability of American trade policy.
“Even if Trump returns to the gravity of the prices, no Minister of Finance or World Leader can risk changing their mind, and therefore things cannot come back in the way they were. You have to do what is best for your country,” wrote Hayes.
In this environment, Hayes sees a renewed role for assets that are not linked to any government. According to him, gold, long considered a safe refuge, would make a return.
“The dollar will always be the reserve currency, but the nations will hold gold reserves to settle world trade. Trump has alluded to this because gold is an exempt rate! Gold must circulate freely and at a lower cost in the monetary order of the new world,” said Hayes.
However, Hayes says that bitcoin could be even more attractive in a world defined by decentralization, capital mobility and reduced confidence in traditional power structures.
“For those who wish to adapt to a return to trade relations before 1971, buy gold, gold minors and the BTC,” he concluded.
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