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The top of the Bitcoin market cycle are notoriously difficult to take, but the combination of technical and behavioral indicators can offer strong signals.
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The MVRV-Z score, the upper PI cycle indicator, the trends in the sales volume, Puell Multiple and the exchange inputs precisely predict the summits of the Bitcoin price cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC) could approach the last step in its current market cycle – a spectacular final rally followed by a clear correction and, ultimately, a lower market. For many, this could be the long -awaited highlight of the last four years, and the main players are preparing accordingly.
Since the end of 2024, the accumulation of Bitcoin whales has increased. Glassnode data show that the number of addresses holding more than 100 BTC jumped almost 14%, reaching 18,200 – a level that we have seen since 2017. The largest market players seem to position for what could be the final period of this cycle.
However, the driving of the rally is more delicate than it seems and knowing when going out is notoriously difficult. The attraction of higher prices summits fuels Fomo, which prompted investors to buy the summit, only to deal with painful withdrawals or even liquidations.
So how can merchants and investors locate the summit before the market is recession?
Higher markers of the Bitcoin cycle
Several technical indicators and onchain, such as MVRV (market value of the value achieved), Z-SCORE, PI CYCLE TOP and Trading Volume Trends, have historically been reliable in signaling when Bitcoin approaches its peak.
The MVRV-Z score compares the market value of Bitcoin to its value achieved and adjusts volatility. A high z score suggests that Bitcoin is considerably overvalued compared to its historic cost base. When this indicator is at a historic level, the downward trend that has followed is likely.
The TOP cycle pi follows the BTC price dynamics using medium -sized medium -sized. When the mobile average at 111 days (111-SMA) twice crosses the average of 350 days (350-SMAX2), it signals overheating. In other words, when the short -term trend catches up with the long -term trajectory, a top of the market is in place.
Historically, all the previous Bitcoin Bull races began with a significant increase in MVRV Z-SCORE, and ended with 111-SMA crossing the longer term trend.
In addition, a drop in trading volumes during price increases can be a warning sign, often pointing out of weakening and reversal potential. The volume of balance (OBV), which records the cumulative volume flow, is a precious metric to follow this process. When Rev diverges price action, it is often an early inversion signal.
The second stage of the Bull Run 2021 was an excellent example. While BTC Price reached higher summits of $ 68,000 (compared to the summit of previous $ 63,170, the negotiation volumes evolved in a different direction, going from 710,000 BTC to 628,000 BTC. This created a downward divergence between price and volume, which suggests that fewer participants decreasing.
For profit
As the market cycle approaches, long -term holders and Bitcoin minors often start to lock profits. Certain precious measures that can follow it are multiple flows of Parrell and exchange.
The multiple Puell indicator examines the revenues of minors compared to its average at 365 days. High readings indicate that minors can start selling aggressively and are often seen near the markets on the market.
Significant entries in exchanges are generally distribution signs, as investors are preparing to sell their parts.
Indicators individually, these indicators can mark various changes in market trends. Combined, they often line up with the top of the cycle.
In relation: Sorry Bears – Bitcoin Analysis rejects $ 107,000 BTC Prices Double Top
The 15% rule
Observations for historical prices activity could also be useful. Crypto Market Cole Garner analyst shared his outing game book according to whale behavior. Its roadmap includes three stages:
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Euphoria. Bitcoin moves vertically for weeks, with candles of huge $ 10,000 +.
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Whip. Bitcoin undergoes its strongest correction in the bull cycle. The curved parabolic trend line that supports the rally is broken – a clear signal in which the top is likely. Meanwhile, altcoins and meme tokens can continue to pump a little longer.
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Complacency. Measure 15% below all Bitcoin times. This is the sales area. Order books on major exchanges often show a wall of sales controls around this level – a probable institutional output point.
According to Garner, the 15% (or 16%) rule operates not only in crypto but also in traditional markets.
No indicator can identify the exact moment to leave, especially in a exchange macro environment. But when several signals align, they become difficult to ignore. The last step in a bitcoin bitcoin market is exciting, but knowing when music can stop is the key to locking profits.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and must not be considered as legal or investment advice. The points of view, the thoughts and opinions expressed here are alone of the author and do not reflect or do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
