The bettors on the Polymarket and Kalshi prediction platforms return to the lowering of the American economy. As of April 29, the two platforms predict that the United States will record an economic contraction during the first quarter of 2025 in a next press release.
The United States has recorded positive growth figures each quarter since 2022, and a reversal of this trend could mark the start of a recession.
The pessimistic prospects mark a change of striking feeling for the prediction markets, which had recently planned a positive American growth report. On April 29, American growth estimates for American Q1 consensus on Kalshi, an exchange of American derivatives, plunged approximately 0.5% to -0.4% in less than 24 hours.
Meanwhile, Polymarket bettors establish the chances of American economic contraction in the first quarter at around 70%. On April 28, they still had a mainly favorable perspective.
The change comes one day after Canada, the second American trading partner, elected Liberal Mark Carney as Prime Minister. Carney is committed to adopting a more impactful position in the current trade in Canada with the United States.
In relation: Analysts are preparing for a bitcoin slide on dark American manufacturing data
The markets are set at the end of a report of April 30 of the US Economic Analysis, which issues official American domestic product (GDP).
The report will give the clearest opinion on the impact of controversial trade policies by US President Donald Trump.
The prediction markets work by allowing users to exchange contracts linked to specific events, prices fluctuating dynamically according to the expected results.
In 2024, event contracts proved to be as reliable as traditional polls, providing not only Trump’s electoral victory, but also scanning the room and the Senate of his party.
Tariff disorders
On April 2, Trump announced his intention to place radical prices on American imports. The president has since interrupted the deployment of prices on certain countries, but the prospect of a world trade war is still looming.
Macroeconomic uncertainty has already weighed on American economic data.
In April, the manufacturing index of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve – a monthly survey of 250 US manufacturers – reported the strongest activity decreases since 2020.
Analysts said factories were preparing for the impact of Trump’s pricing plans, which could potentially increase production costs for manufacturers.
Review: Same degeneracy finances revolutionary anti-aging research
