Ukraine in Crisis: U.S. Halts Military Aid Amid Trump-Zelenskyy Fallout, EU Races to Fill the Gap

In a decision that has placed Ukraine in its most precarious situation since the start of the war with Russia, the United States interrupted military aid to kyiv following a dramatic fallout between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Unexpected development has left Ukraine, which depends strongly on American military support to maintain its defense against Russian aggression, scraping alternatives because its war effort faces new uncertainties.

An anonymous official of the White House and an American official confirmed on Monday to the CNBC NBC News partner network that military support was interrupted while the situation is evaluated.

“The president was clear that he focuses on peace. We also need our partners to be engaged in this goal. We stop and examine our help to ensure that it contributes to a solution, ”said those responsible.

Although the White House did not comment publicly, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal expressed Kyiv’s determination to continue his diplomatic efforts to obtain support.

“Whatever the discussions on the possibility of stopping [military aid] -We will absolutely continue to work with the United States, Congress, with the Trump administration and with it personally through all the diplomatic channels available so that Ukraine and the United States continue our fight for just, sustainable and stable peace in Ukraine, on the European continent, “said Shmyhal on Tuesday.

The decision to suspend aid, if confirmed, would mark an unprecedented change in American policy, in particular in the light of the essential role that US military aid has played in the strengthening of the defense of Ukraine. On Friday, The Fallout follows a controversial meeting in the White House, where President Zelenskyy suddenly left without signing a critical mineral agreement of several billion dollars – a moment considered by many as a diplomatic disaster.

A huge setback for Ukraine

For Ukraine, the break on American military aid could not arrive at a worst time. With more than three years of war with Russia, kyiv requires a regular supply of weapons and ammunition to maintain its front lines. Defense analysts warn that an prolonged cessation of American support could have serious consequences on the battlefield.

“This decision does not concern the economy. He is fundamentally motivated by Trump’s point of view according to which Russia is willing to conclude a peace agreement, and only Ukraine is the obstacle, “said Malcolm Chalmers, deputy director general of the Rusi defense group. “But there is no evidence that Russia would be ready to accept an agreement and what it would be. Indeed, this decision will encourage Putin to ask for more – including Ukrainian demilitarization and neutrality. »»

The Kremlin, entering the situation, said that he hoped that this decision would push Ukraine to a peace agreement. “If this is true, then this decision could indeed push the kyiv regime to the peace process,” said Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov, to journalists, according to a translation by NBC News.

Is Ukraine now condemned?

The defense strategists of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) described the prospects of Ukraine as “dark”. Analysts Mark F. Cancien and Chris H. Park explained that if the equipment of the commitments announced previously can still be delivered, there is a risk that the Trump administration can stop these shipments.

“The main thing: the prospects of Ukraine are dark. In the best of cases, American and European aid continues, which is enough for Ukraine to stabilize the front lines, blunder the Russian attacks and buy time for a negotiated settlement, “they noted. “In the worst case, the United States cut equipment shipments. What Ukraine receives from Europeans, other world sources and its own industry will keep its strengths in the field but with decreased capacities. Russian attacks will gain more and more territory; At one point, the Ukrainian lines will break. Ukraine will have to accept an unfavorable, even draconian peace. »»

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a respected source that followed Ukrainian aid, said Europe has already exceeded the United States in total support, allocating 70 billion euros ($ 73.6 billion) in financial and humanitarian aid and 62 billion euros in military aid. Compared, the United States has provided 64 billion euros in military aid and 50 billion euros in financial and humanitarian allowances.

The $ 840 billion defense plan in Europe as a rescue buoy

With the United States down, Ukraine’s hopes are now based on the European Union, which is preparing a massive defense funding initiative which could increase up to 800 billion euros ($ 840 billion). Part of this fund should support Ukraine, but analysts warn that the country’s ability to continue to fight will strongly depend on the speed with which the EU can mobilize this funding.

The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced on Tuesday the EU’s intention to stimulate defense spending, highlighting immediate support in Ukraine and the long -term objective of improving European security.

“Europe is ready to massively increase its defense expenses. Both to respond to the short-term urgency to act and support Ukraine, but also to meet the long-term need to assume much more responsibility for our own European security, “she said.

However, despite these ambitious plans, it is to be feared that bureaucratic delays and the deteriorated state of the defense industry of Europe can hamper rapid assistance in Ukraine. CSIS strategists have warned: “The bad news is that Europeans already provide as much as they can. In addition, if the United States stops helping, many European countries will also be recovered. »»

Can Europe intensify?

As the situation goes, the EU faces the growing pressure to accelerate the gap left by the United States, the CSI notes that Europe has been an important contributor to the defense of Ukraine, providing around $ 1.8 billion per month in military aid. European aid was particularly crucial at the end of 2023 and at the beginning of 2024 when the American funds were exhausted among the debates of the Congress.

The EU has also approved the use of frozen Russian sovereign assets to support the military needs of Ukraine, a decision that demonstrates its commitment to kyiv’s defense. However, the extent to which Europe can fill the vacuum left by the United States remains uncertain.

European leaders have already summoned emergency meetings to discuss their role in the defense of Ukraine and the broader implications of an American potential peace agreement which could throughout kyiv and Europe. For the moment, the question remains whether Europe can act quickly to prevent Ukraine from being forced to disintegrate.