On April 6, Bitcoin Price formed a death cross on a daily graph – a technical model where the 50 -day mobile average (Ma) fell below 200 days. Historically associated with trend inversions and long periods of lower negotiation, this worrying signal has sometimes preceded major market flaps.
The last cross of death comes in the midst of increasing macroeconomic uncertainty. Actions are in shock of what seems to be the first stages of a tariff war, volatility increases and fear continues to dominate the feeling of investors. For some investors, the Bitcoin death cross could be the end of the hope of a short -term rally. The first signs of capitulation of short -term holders can already emerge.
However, not everyone sees Doom to come.
Bitcoin Death crosses history
By definition, a cross of death confirms the end of a bullish phase. When the 50 -day MA falls below the 200 -day MA, it suggests that the action of recent prices has weakened in relation to the longer term trend. Its counterpart, the golden cross, occurs when the opposite occurs – often announcing a new rally.
Since its creation, Bitcoin has experienced 10 Cross of death of this type, the 11th taking place at the moment. The analysis of their dates and durations gives a major overview: each bear market included a cross of death, but not all the crosses of death led to a lower market. This distinction is essential to understand the current configuration.
BTC / USD 1 day of death Historic cross (Journal). Source: Marie Poteriaieva, tradingView
Indeed, there are two types of cross cross: those that occur in the bears and others markets. The three crosses of death which were formed in the lower markets of 2014-2015, 2018 and 2022 were long and painful. They lasted 9 to 13 months and saw titles between 55% and 68% of the day of the cross at the bottom of the cycle.
The other seven were much less serious. They lasted 1.5 months to 3.5 months and saw Bitcoin decrease by 27% to nothing at all. In many cases, these signals have marked the local funds and were followed by renewed rallies.
This brings us to the critical question: is Bitcoin already on a lower market, or is it another bear trap?
A lowering signal?
If Bitcoin is indeed in Bear territory, as the CRG Cryptotic Ki Young Ju think, the Cross of current death could report 6 to 12 months from more action. These prospects align with its observations of the difference between the current market capitalization and the ceiling carried out (average cost base for each portfolio x amount of BTC maintained).
“If the ceiling carried out increases, but market capitalization stagnates or decreases, it means that capital flows, but prices are not increasing – a conventional lower signal.”
The current data clearly point to the latter, adds Ki Young Ju.
“The sales pressure could fade at any time, but historically, real inversions take at least six months – so a short -term rally seems unlikely.”
Difference in BTC growth rate. Source: cryptocurrency
Other market players do not take into account the presence of the death cross. Crypto Analyst Mister Crypto argued that the current death cross is a configuration for a rally rather than a slide. “The trap is set again. It will be the most hated rally of 2025!” He posted alongside a graph showing the previous false signals of this cycle.
Bitcoin Death Cross during the Haussier market. Source: Mister Crypto
Coinshares, research manager, James Butterfill also minimized the signal meaning. As he said,
“For those of you who think that Bitcoin Death Cross means anything – empirically, it is a total nonsense, and in fact, often a good buying opportunity.”
Butterfill’s data shows that in average, Bitcoin prices are slightly lower than a month after a death cross (-3.2%) and often higher by three months.
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Interestingly, Bitcoin is not the only flashing active active in warning signs. The Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are both about to train their own death cross, while individual technological stocks – notably Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Alphabet – have already triggered them or are about to do so.
The recent Bitcoin movement is part of a wider market reset, for better or for worse. For the moment, however, he leans more towards the “worse” side: as some analysts point out, which is bad for the Nasdaq tends to be bad for Bitcoin too. Unless, of course, Bitcoin fully claims its role of digital gold.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.
