Bitcoin hit new highs as US debt rose to $36.6 trillion. Will macroeconomic data detail the BTC rally?

The main dishes to remember:

• The explosion of stress of American debts and the housing market could trigger a net BTC correction to $ 95,000.

• The Bitcoin Prize remains closely linked to macro-tendencies, including Fed policy and institutional flows.

The US raw national debt increased by $ 367 billion on Monday, reaching a summit of $ 36.6 billions of dollars. The wave followed the approval by US President Donald Trump of the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, who increased the debt ceiling by $ 5 billions on Friday. Could this be the trigger for a Bitcoin (BTC) at $ 95,000?

Analysts, including Kurt S. Altrichter, SDRM and founder of Ivory Hill Wealth, raised red flags on the American housing market. According to Altrichter, a powerful metric that generally increases during anterior economic slowdowns has reached alarming levels.

The inventory of new single -family houses is 10 months of supply. According to Altrichter, this “only happened during or just before recession”. He claims that the weakness of housing stems from high interest rates but, more importantly, from what he calls “the evaporation of demand”.

If this historic scheme – the housing of the excess offer to a broader economic decline – is true, the impact could weigh on risky assets, including bitcoin. Even if the long -term effect is positive for crypto, the immediate reaction of investors tends to be a risk aversion, in favor of cash and short -term bonds.

Jack Mallers, co -founder and CEO of Strike, noted on X that the only viable option for the American treasure is to extend the monetary base – an action similar to printing. Deposits maintains that the government is unlikely to be lacking on its debt, which means that excitement becomes the final complex. This, he suggests, creates an ideal environment for a Bitcoin rally.

Bitcoin fate depends on the actions of the American federal reserve

There is also a counterattack: some market players believe that Bitcoin rupture over $ 112,100 on Wednesday is not linked to tax problems or recession fears. Instead, they attribute the larger stock market rally to the expectations of policy changes in the federal reserve.

Speculation also develops around the potential push of President Trump to replace the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell. In the event of success, this decision could lead to greater monetary policy. Trump has repeatedly urged the Fed to reduce interest rates. According to Fox Business, he currently checks the candidates to succeed Powell, whose mandate ended in May 2026.

Despite strong net entrances to the Bitcoin (ETF) negotiated funds and growing institutional demand, the BTC remains closely linked to broader stock markets.

The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 is 68%, which means that the two asset classes have presented similar price trends. Another risk factor in the course of American imports, potentially harming business profits, especially in the technology sector, which depends on world trade.

In relation: Bitcoin data point to gather at $ 120,000 after the Pro BTC traders abandoned their downsides

NVIDIA (NVDA), which has become the most precious company in the world with a market capitalization of 4 dollars on Wednesday, could be particularly exposed. It is difficult to predict whether the escalation of trade tensions will arouse a sharp drop in technological actions. Although the increase in the debt ceiling often increases the feeling of risk, the threat of a recession can trigger Bitcoin correction at $ 95,000.

In the end, a new summit of all time for Bitcoin in 2025 remains plausible, as Jack Mallers of Strike noted. But for the moment, traders seem to fear whether the technological sector focused on AI will resist the commercial conflict.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and must not be considered as legal or investment advice. The points of view, the thoughts and opinions expressed here are the only of the author and do not reflect or do not necessarily represent the opinions and opinions of Cointellegraph.