The main dishes to remember:
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The diagonal and butterfly differences benefit from a BTC nearly $ 160,000.
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The purchase options of $ 200,000 at the end of the year involve less than 3% of profit.
Bitcoin traders (BTC) are preparing for the expiration of $ 8.8 billion options, scheduled for December 26 at 8:00 am UTC. More than a billion dollars in Bitcoin options would become active if the price exceeds $ 200,000. But does that point out that traders expect a 72%rally?
Calls dominate, but are comfortable with Bitcoin below $ 120,000
Currently, total interests of interests open for the call (ACHER) amounted to $ 6.45 billion, while the options (sale) track at 2.36 billion dollars. These data indicate a clear advantage for the appeal options, although the lower traders seem somewhat comfortable with the Bitcoin remaining less than $ 120,000.
Certain purchase options have exercise prices set at $ 170,000 or more and will expire without value unless Bitcoin earns 46% compared to its current level. In fact, if the BTC is negotiated nearly $ 116,500 on December 26, only $ 878 million of open -ended interest will have an expiration value.
Professional merchants often use highly bullish call options in the context of strategies that do not necessarily depend on an end -of -year rally of 70%.
One of these strategies, the diagonal call, consists in buying a call of $ 200,000 in December and selling a call of $ 200,000 with previous expiration, generally in October.
This configuration benefits the most if BTC exceeds $ 146,000 by October 31, which caused the long -term call while the short -term call expires without value.
However, BTC prices greater than $ 200,000 can actually harm this strategy. The loss of maximum potential is BTC 0.005 (around $ 585 at current prices), while the maximum gain is BTC 0.0665 (approximately $ 7,750).
Another example is the “reverse Call Butterfly”, which consists of buying a call of $ 140,000, for sale two calls of $ 160,000 and buying a call of $ 200,000, all with the expirations in December.
This position benefits the most if BTC landed nearly $ 160,000 on December 26, counting BTC 0.112 (around $ 13,050). However, losses are starting to accumulate if BTC climbs beyond $ 178,500. Despite this, the $ 200,000 call helps caps potential losses. In this case, the maximum loss is 0.109 BTC, or about $ 12,700.
$ 900 million in Put Bitcoin options target $ 50,000 at $ 80,000
Significant open interest in the call options of $ 200,000 does not necessarily mean that traders expect Bitcoin to reach this level. In fact, nearly $ 900 million in put options are positioned between $ 50,000 and $ 80,000 for December expiration, showing that lowering bets are also at stake, even if they bear lower ratings.
To illustrate the feeling of the market, the call of $ 140,000 is currently estimated around BTC 0.051 (approximately $ 5,940), which implies a probability of 21% based on the Black-Schole model. Meanwhile, calls of $ 200,000 are negotiated at BTC 0.007 (approximately $ 814), reflecting an implicit probability of less than 3%.
These aggressive exercise prices can make the headlines, but the data tells another story. Traders do not bet on the farm during a 72%rally. Instead, they use calls far from money as tools in structured strategies that offer limited and upward risk.
Unlike Bitcoin options, however, the BTC price chances are $ 200,000 this year is 13%higher, according to Polymarket.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and must not be considered as legal or investment advice. The points of view, the thoughts and opinions expressed here are the only of the author and do not reflect or do not necessarily represent the opinions and opinions of Cointellegraph.
