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Bitcoin (BTC) is generally not considered a reliable investment during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, especially when oil prices increase in response to the climbing of global tensions. However, historical data suggest that such moments often have convincing purchasing opportunities for traders prepared to capitalize on market dislocations.
Oil tips often align with net and temporary bitcoin price corrections
Faced with an imminent conflict or instability, investors generally run in short -term public debt and cash, promoting volatility security. However, Bitcoin has historically surpassed the week after steep oil prices overvoltages, such as the recent rally at $ 77 a barrel on Friday.
An examination of the 15 -minute price table reveals an opposite relationship between bitcoin and oil. While crude WTI increased by 19% between Wednesday and Friday, Bitcoin increased from $ 110,200 to $ 102,800. This model aligns with the dominant vision of bitcoin as an asset at risk, and not as a defensive hedge. However, a wider period of time offers different information.
In the long term, the data shows no coherent correlation between bitcoin and oil prices, the relationship fluctuating considerably. However, the episodes of the assessment of extreme oil prices have coincided with sharp bitcoin corrections – three times in the past year only. Each instance was followed by a rebound in the price of Bitcoin, with gains ranging from 16% to 24% within eight days of the initial decline.
In the most recent case on January 15, 2025, oil increased to $ 80.50, compared to $ 72.50 six days earlier. The tip coincided with a drop in bitcoin at $ 89,300 on January 13, followed by a gathering of 22% to $ 109,300 before January 20. The decision was made after the United States has imposed sanctions on the oil sector in Russia, while US gross inventories have decreased for eight consecutive weeks.
Earlier, on October 8, 2024, oil prices increased to $ 77.50 from $ 68.00 in the previous week. Bitcoin initially corrected $ 58,900 on October 10, but then advanced 16% over the following eight days. The rally at $ 68,960 rewarded merchants who capitalized on volatility launched by the terrorist attacks on October 7 in the Middle East.
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A similar scheme occurred on August 13, 2024, when oil increased to $ 80, against $ 74 after Libya temporarily stopped key oil fields, apparently due to the mobilization of armed groups. Bitcoin fell at $ 56,150 by August 15, but rebounded 16% in a few days, reaching $ 65,000 on August 23.
Although there is no guarantee that the trend will persist, oil prices have again reached heights of five months. Historical data suggests that the current Bitcoin level nearly $ 102,800 could present another attractive entry, potentially targeting a gain of $ 119,200 by June 21.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and must not be considered as legal or investment advice. The points of view, the thoughts and opinions expressed here are the only of the author and do not reflect or do not necessarily represent the opinions and opinions of Cointellegraph.
