The main dishes to remember:
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The Bitcoin Aviv ratio remains lower than the historic cutting -edge levels, indicating a potential rise greater than $ 330,000 before confirming a top of the cycle.
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Bitcoin over -the -counter assets are considerably decreasing in 2025, pointing to a strategic accumulation by strategy, Metaplanet, Blackrock and others.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has had a rocky month, but a recent analysis indicates that BTC could increase 300% of this cycle. The technical analyst Gert Van Linen Post highlights the Aviv ratio, a metric which compares the active capitalization of Bitcoin (money in motion) to its invested total capitalization (reality of capital, excluding minor rewards).
Historically, when the Aviv ratio crosses its average deviation + 3σ, it reported a top of the cycle. For example, the BTC was $ 1,200 in 2013, nearly $ 20,000 in 2017 and around $ 69,000 in 2021. Currently, the Aviv ratio level remains below these past peaks, which suggests that Bitcoin could climb at least $ 330,000 this cycle, before the average deviation condition + 3σ was fulfilled.
The Aviv ratio offers a single objective on market dynamics, reflecting the activity of investors compared to the locked value. A peak indicates an increased exchange or profits, which often precedes the main price movements. Van Lagen’s analysis attaches this to the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, where post-Ath gatherings have historically delivered significant gains. However, its predictive precision lacks validation in variable market conditions, and volatility remains a generic character.
Adding to the story, Cryptochant’s data reveal a notable change: Bitcoin holdings on over -the -counter offices (OTC) went from 166,500 to 137,400 in 2025. This decline suggests that large investors are moving exchanges, which has reduced sales pressure or long -term change.
The drop in balances in OTC offices this year stems from the strategic accumulation of institutional investors, led by aggressive purchases of strategy, and new entrants like Metaplanet, which has amassed 10,000 BTC, alongside robust net entries in the Bitcoin ETF, which total $ 128.18 billion net. The BlackRock crypto portfolio also has more than $ 70 billion in BTC, which sums up the current intention of the main investors on the market.
Demarket update: #BlackRock Addition of additional $ 250 million in #Bitcoin June 17 – marking six consecutive purchasing days, now totaling $ 1.4 billion.
His current $ BTC The outfit is estimated at more than $ 70 billion. 🤯
(H / t: @arkham)) pic.twitter.com/jmjnau2kdy
– Cointelegraph Markets & Research (@cointelegraphmt) June 18, 2025
Related: 25% Bitcoin Price Rally should follow today’s correction if history is repeated
Power Law puts a bitcoin course goal between $ 220,000 and $ 330,000
Similar to the price of $ 330,000 in Van Lagen, another study by Bitcoin Smininston researcher with a comparable cycle for BTC. The analysis of the with with a simple mobile average at 365 days (SMA) aligned with a model of electricity law (R² = 0.96), the price of the Bitcoin projection could reach $ 220,000 to $ 330,000 in this cycle.
Currently exchanging $ 104,000, BTC would need a 100% to 200% increase to these levels, in accordance with historical peaks where prices have doubled or tripled above the trend line of the electricity law.
The challenge model with decreasing volatility hypotheses, showing Bitcoin price cycles, retain significant fluctuations, as evidenced by regular differences in relation to the trend line. Although optimistic, the researcher warns that the analysis draws only four market cycles, urging skepticism.
Similarly, Cointelegraph reported that a list of 30 peak indicators of the Haussier market of Coringlass Coinier suggests that Bitcoin could climb $ 230,000, without reporting a cycle cycle despite the BTC reaching $ 112,000. Metrics like Pi Cycle Top and MVRV show that the Haussier market has room to run, supporting the optimistic perspectives.
Related: Bitcoin less than $ 100,000 now “less likely” such as Liquidity of BTC price eyes at $ 106,000
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.
