The cycle of four years of Bitcoin (BTC), anchored around its events in half, is widely recognized as a key factor in price growth from BTC from year to year. In this larger framework, traders expect distinct phases: accumulation, parabolic gatherings and possible accidents.
Throughout the four -year period, short -term cycles are also emerging, often motivated by changes in market feeling and the behavior of long and short -term holders. These cycles, shaped by the psychological patterns of market players, can give an overview of the next Bitcoin movements.
Bitcoin whales eat as the markets withdraw
Long -term bitcoin holders – those who hold three to five years – are often considered as the most experienced participants. Typically richer and more experienced, they can withstand prolonged bears and tend to sell near local peaks.
According to recent Glassnode data, long -term carriers have distributed more than 2 million BTCs in two separate waves during the current cycle. The two waves were followed by a strong reactive, which contributed to absorb the pressure of the sale and contributed to a more stable price structure. Currently, long -term bitcoin holders are in the new accumulation period. Since mid-February, the richness of this cohort has increased sharply by nearly 363,000 BTC.
The total offer of BTC owned by long -term holders. Source: Glassnode
Another cohort of Bitcoin holders often considered more seasoned than the average market participant is whales – members with more than 1,000 BTC. Many of them are also long -term holders. At the top of this group are the mega-Wheks having more than 10,000 BTC. Currently, there are 93 of these addresses, according to Bitinfocharts, and their recent activity indicates a continuous accumulation.
Glassnode data show that large whales briefly reached a perfect accumulation score (~ 1.0) in early April, indicating intense purchases over a period of 15 days. The score has since been released at ~ 0.65 but still reflects a coherent accumulation. These large carriers seem to buy from small cohorts – in particular portfolios with less than 1 BTC and those with less than 100 BTC – whose accumulation scores have dropped to 0.1 to 0.2.
This divergence points out the growing retail distribution to major holders and marks the potential for supporting future prices (whales tend to last for a long time). Often, it also precedes bullish periods.
The last time Mega-Whales reached a perfect accumulation score was in August 2024, when Bitcoin was negotiated nearly $ 60,000. Two months later, the BTC ran to $ 108,000.
BTC trend accumulation score per cohort. Source: Glassnode
Short -term holders are strongly affected by the feeling of the market
Short -term holders, generally defined as those with BTC for 3 to 6 months, behave differently. They are more subject to sale during corrections or periods of uncertainty.
This behavior also follows a model. Glass nodes data show that expenditure levels tend to increase and lower every 8 to 12 months.
Currently, the expenditure activity of short -term holders is at a historically weak point despite the macro turbulent environment. This suggests that so far, many more recent bitcoin buyers choose to hold rather than the sale of panic. However, if the price of Bitcoin drops more, short -term holders can be the first to sell, potentially accelerating the decline.
Expenditure activity for short -term BTC holders. Source: Glassnode
The markets are motivated by people. Emotions like fear, greed, denial and euphoria do not only influence individual decisions – they shape whole market movements. This is why we often see familiar models: the bubbles swell as greeding settles, then collapse under the weight of the sale of panic.
The FEAR & GREED index of CoinmarketCap illustrates this rhythm well. This metric, based on several market indicators, generally cycle every 3 to 5 months, going from neutral to greed or fear.
Since February, the feeling of the market has remained in the territory of fear and extreme fear, now aggravated by the trade war of American president Donald Trump and the collapse of world stock market prices. However, human psychology is cyclical and the market could see a potential return to a “neutral” feeling in the next 1 to 3 months.
Index table of fear and greed. Source: CoinmarketCap
The most fascinating aspect of market cycles is perhaps the way they can become self-realizing. When enough people believe in a scheme, they start to act on it, taking advantage of expected peaks and buying reduced lower reductions. This collective behavior strengthens the cycle and adds to its persistence.
Bitcoin is an excellent example. Its cycles may not work with specific hours, but they rhyme enough to shape expectations – and, in turn, influence reality.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.
