Bitcoin risks (BTC) falling into a fresh bear market as a large collection of BTC price measures have produced a “down divergence”.
In a discussion on social networks on March 27, Bitcoin commentators reported disturbing signals from the Macro Bitcoin index of Capriole Investments.
Bitcoin macro indemp bulmp “not great”, says the creator
While the BTC / USD is struggling to return to the area around the peaks of all time, ONCHAIN’s metrics are starting to lose their advantage on the bull market.
The Macro Bitcoin index, created by Capriole in 2022, uses automatic learning to analyze data from a large number of metrics that the founder Charles Edwards says “give a strong indication of the relative value of Bitcoin throughout the historic cycles”.
“The model only looks at Onchain and Macro-Market data. Price data and technical analysis are not considered an entry into this model,” he explained in an introduction to the tool at the time.
Since the end of 2023, metric has printed lower peaks while the price has printed higher summits, creating a “down divergence”. Although common to previous bull markets, potential involvement is that BTC / USD has already put a long -term peak.
“Not great,” reacted Edwards while republishing an impression of the index downloaded on X by another user.
“But … when Bitcoin Macro Index becomes positive, I did not fight it.”
Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index. Source: @ a_trade_academy / x
BTC prices metrics find it difficult to recover
Various sources of analysis have concluded that Bitcoin suffers from macro turbulence this year.
In relation: Bitcoin BTC price prediction markets will not have more than $ 138,000 in 2025
In one of his blog articles “Quicktake” this week, the cryptocurrency onchain Analytics platform referenced four onchain metrics currently in a state of flow.
“All of these measures suggest that Bitcoin is experiencing a significant short and mid-term turbulence,” said contributor Burak Kesmeci.
“However, none of them indicates that Bitcoin has reached an overheated or cycle level.”
Bitcoin IFP Chart (screenshot). Source: cryptocurrency
The list includes the market value of the value achieved (MVRV) and unat -spent profit / net loss (NUPL), as well as the so -called intersectional flow (IFP), which overthrew Bearish in February.
To make it change, Kesmeci concluded that the IFP should return above its simple mobile average at 90 days (SMA).
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.
