The price of Dogecoin is still up 39% of a week over the week, but the recent drop in prices could be more than a simple minor cooling.
With more than $ 7 billion in Doge, sitting on the scholarships, the highest in six months, the assembly of the sales pressure could lower prices. Historical trends and narrowing of Hodl waves suggest that this correction can last longer than expected.
Exchange sales reach heights of 6 months
One of the largest warning panels at the moment is the sharp increase in Dogecoin exchange sales. As of July 21, more than 26.1 billion Doge seated on centralized exchanges, the highest level in six months. At a price of $ 0.27, it is more than $ 7 billion in Doge while waiting to move.
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Historically, when DOGE balances on Spike exchanges (local summits), this often means that holders are preparing to sell. The more there is Doge on exchanges, the easier it becomes to withdraw, which can create a sale pressure and lower prices.
We have already seen it:
- May 11: The balance of exchanges culminated at 23.76 billion Doge. The Dogecoin price went from $ 0.23 to $ 0.21 within six days. A drop of 8.6%!
- May 23: balance reached 23.86 billion Doge. The price continued to go from $ 0.225 to $ 0.15 in a month. A decrease of 33%!
If this model is repeated, a drop from $ 0.265 to $ 0.22, or even lower, may not be outside the table.
Hodl Waves shows the confidence of narrowing holders
In addition to the increase in exchange sales, the Hodl waves, which measure the duration of Doge sitting in wallets, also move in a downward direction.
Between May 16 and July 21:
- The 3 to 6 month band increased from 15.06% to 6.44%
- The 1 -week to 1 -month band increased from 4.681 to 2.94%
This means that mid-term holders and short-term believers come out of their positions. Less portfolios last for a long time, and others are probably moving to exchanges, aligning with the previous pressure of the sale. Hodl waves are a way to see how much holders are engaged. When these waves shrink, this often reflects doubt in pursuing the increase.
Dogecoin price action: key support under threat
From the point of view of the price of Dogecoin, $ 0.24 is the level to monitor. The current support contains approximately $ 0.25, but the structure weakens if DOGE slides less than $ 0.24, which is at the correction level of 8%. Below, the $ 0.22 zone opens, marking a danger zone with several strokes at the support during the May cycle.
The last two times the exchange sales have increased like this, the price of Dogecoin corrected 8% and 33% respectively. If a similar model takes place, a drop of $ 0.265 to the beach from $ 0.22 to $ 0.20 (two key FIB levels) is not outside the table. The entire price structure could become down if the Dogecoin price makes $ 0.17 (the FIB level of 0.236), which would then mean a 33% drop in current levels.
What would return this lower hypothesis is a passage beyond $ 0.28, led by a drop in the balance of DOGE, and an influx of new holders.
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