J.P. Morgan Cuts 2028 Stablecoin Market Forecast to $500bn, Says Trillion-Dollar Bets Are Overblown

JP Morgan strongly lowered its projections to the global market for Stablescoin, providing that the total value of the floors in circulation will only reach $ 500 billion than by 2028.

The estimate, published Thursday, against forecasts much more optimistic by other market observers, including Standard Charterd and Bernstein, who see the Stablescoin market increase up to 2 dollars and even 4 dollars of dollars during the next decade.

In a note to investors, JP Morgan analysts have said that the expectations that stalls would revolutionize traditional payments are “far too optimistic”, highlighting persistent structural challenges, limited real use cases and a lack of regulatory clarity as key obstacles.

“The idea that Stablecoins will replace traditional money for daily use is still far from reality,” said the brokerage company.

Limited use of the real world

According to JP Morgan, the use of stablescoin remains strongly concentrated in the cryptography ecosystem. The bank estimates that only 6% of current demand – about $ 15 billion – is linked to payments, while the overwhelming majority of stablecoins is still used in cryptographic trade, decentralized finance (DEFI) and as a guarantee on the scholarships.

This puts a ceiling on their current utility in broader financial markets. “The adoption of payments is minimal,” noted the analysts, adding that the concept of staboins exceeding traditional money remains “speculative at best”.

The report fixes the current size of the Stablescoin market at around $ 250 billion, which is going to its 2028 projection. This figure aligns with the data analysis platforms, which follow the combined market capitalization of the main stablescoins such as Tether (USDT), USD Coin (USDC) and DAI.

A striking contrast with the bullish forecasts

The conservative point of view of JP Morgan contrasts strongly with previous predictions. Standard Charterd in May said that the market could reach 2 dollars by 2028 if stablecoins are increasingly used for funding, digital payments and intelligent contracts. Bernstein, in a note dated June 30, has planned that the market could reach 4 dollars of dollars over the next 10 years, assuming that regulatory clarity and adoption by banks and fintechs accelerate.

These optimistic forecasts were fed by developments such as the American Senate of the Act on Engineering Act, a Bipartisan bill designed to provide a regulatory framework for Stablecoins. Analysts presented the bill as a potential catalyst for greater investment and the adoption of stablescoins in payment systems, settlement rails and cross -border transfers.

But JP Morgan urges prudence. He indicates that the engineering law, while a step forward, has not yet translated as real use or regulatory alignment in the main jurisdictions.

Regulatory uncertainty, global competition

Beyond the United States, global competition and regulatory fragmentation continue to slow down adoption. In June, the Chinese central bank reaffirmed its commitment to extend the international use of the Digital Yuan (E-CNY), the digital currency of the central bank of the country (CBDC). Beijing considers E-CNY as a strategic alternative to stablescoins based on a dollar, especially for commercial and road and road savings.

Meanwhile, the Giant Fintech Chinese Finement Finement Group – an affiliate of Alibaba – said last month that he would seek a license to deliver stablecoins through his arm based in Hong Kong, Ant International. This decision highlights an increasing interest in the stablecoin issuance of players established in the digital payment space.

However, JP Morgan minimized the potential impact of both e-CNY and platforms like Alipay and WeChat as models for global growth of stablescoin.

“Neither the rapid expansion of E-CNY nor the success of Alipay and WeChat Pay represent models for the expansion of stablescoin in the future,” said the firm.

The objective of the market remains crypto-native

For the moment, the StableCoin market remains mainly crypto-nest. TETH (USDT), the largest stablecoin, dominates volumes and trading reserves, despite persistent concerns about transparency and reserve audits. The USD (USDC) part, supported by the United States-based circle, has tried to position itself as the most regulated and transparent option, but even it has seen the use fluctuated in the risk of market and American banking sector.

JP Morgan noted that if the stablecoins have called upon as an equivalent of digital cash, their ability to move traditional payments is limited by:

• Weak or no return for holders,
• Regulatory risk,
• Acceptance of limited merchants,
• Poor ramp infrastructure on / off to convert to and from Fiat,
• And the domination of real -time payment systems well established in countries like India, Brazil and China.

The estimate of $ 500 billion in the company reflects a more prudent but realistic trajectory for the stablecoins. Growth will probably continue, but at a moderate rate, focused on crypto-native applications and niche financial services. The wider adoption as a payment tool will both require technological improvements and a more uniform global regulatory environment, both that are developing.