The current cryptography market reflects the model seen in 2017 when Bitcoin posted a regular rise in regular trend throughout the year before the rise in December, said Raoul Pal, CEO of the Crypto Real Vision research platform.
“It’s scary similar to 2017,” Pal said in a video on Thursday. PAL said that it was starting to predict a longer crypto cycle this time since the economic cycle score – a macroeconomic model it uses to follow where the global economy is in the wider cycle – is “still below 50 years” and that it “generally takes a while to climb”.
Macro data the catalyst behind the extended cryptography cycle
Bitcoin (BTC) began 2017 at around $ 1,044 before reaching $ 2,187 by May 31 and ending the year at $ 14,156, an increase of approximately 1,255% compared to its price at the start of the year, according to CoinmarketCap data.
However, PAL has hypothesized that the weakening of the US dollar could indicate that the current cryptographic cycle is still far from reaching its peak.
“With the dollar even broken down today, it is starting to suggest that this could go to the second quarter of 2026,” he said. Since January 1, the US dollar index (DXY) has been down 8.99%to 98.77 at the time of publication, according to tradingView data. Bitcoin and DXY are inversely correlated.
When the dollar weakens, the BTC becomes more attractive not only as a speculative investment but as an alternative currency.
PAL said macroeconomic data has probably been a main catalyst to further postpone the cryptographic cycle.
“It is as if the whole cycle had changed the rates of the cause did not adjust themselves; the dollar was aside for a while,” he said.
He also said that current market conditions may resemble 2020 more than 2021, which suggests that the market could be in a previous growth phase that many assume it.
“The mandate” of the Middle East is the AI and the Blockchain
Bitcoin started $ 2020 to $ 7,174, but dropped from 27% to $ 5,227 in March. He then rebounded 129% to reach $ 11,990 in August, finally finishing the year at $ 28,993 – an increase of 304% compared to his price at the start of the year.
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PAL said that the market continues to expand, it must continue to attract “greatest players”. He told his recent trip to the Middle East, where he met sovereign funds and said most had an optimistic perspective on the crypto:
“The mandate throughout the region, from the Saudis in Abu Dhabi to Dubai in Bahreïn in Qatar, is AI and Blockchain.”
“Not only does the use of Bitcoin as a reserve asset, but also the construction of all the government infrastructure on the blockchain,” he added.
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