Despite repeated calls from former President Donald Trump at lower interest rates, the US federal reserve has held stable rates for the fifth consecutive meeting. The reference rate remains unchanged from 4.25% to 4.5%, a back level in December 2024. But now, all eyes are on September 2025, the FOMC meeting and expectations are arrow.
Interest rate drop possibilities in the United States
Barely a few days ago, the probability of a rate drop in September was less than 45%. But a key data point has changed everything, the unemployment rate reached 4.2% and the previous work numbers were revised significantly lower. This has grown the expectations of falling market rates to 80%, reflecting an increasing belief that the Fed can no longer afford to wait.
“Many can occur before the #FOMC meeting of September 17, but it seems more and more likely that we will obtain a drop in rate at the beach 4 to 4.25, that is to say a cup of 25 BPS,” said Matthew Dixon, Crypto analyst on X.
The internal division of the Fed also feeds speculations according to which two members of the FOMC out of twelve voted in favor of a rate drop in the last meeting, the first time in more than 30 years that this has happened.
The cryptography market reacts to economic disorders
The economic slowdown and the geopolitical tension triggered by the new American rates have hit crypto hard. Bitcoin dropped by $ 113,231, while Ether and Solana fell 6% and 5% respectively. In the past 24 hours, the BTC and the ETH have seen $ 228 million and $ 262 million in liquidations while merchants were forced to sell market prices to cover the margin positions.
Investors are nervous. Fed delay in rate decreases is now considered a misstep, adding to the panic of the market.
What is the next step? CPI data could be the final trigger
The last final point of data before the FED September meeting will be the consumer price index (ICC). If inflation shows cooling signs, analysts expect it to block in the case of a cut.
“If CPI is slowing down, expect a good rally and a drop in rate confirmed in September,” said an economist.
How could a rate drop relaunch cryptographic markets?
A rate drop could bring an essential relief to the cryptographic space. Lower interest rates reduce the attraction of fixed income assets, pushing more investors to risky and high yield assets like crypto.
It also encourages borrowing and injects liquidity on the market, the conditions where cryptographic markets often thrive. A dominant position sustained from the Fed can even stimulate adoption and regulatory clarity, opening the way to long -term stability in the space of digital assets.
