The cryptography market shows positive signs in the second half of 2025. Several divergence signals have appeared, suggesting a potential recovery for bitcoin and altcoins.
Divergence is a key concept of data analysis. This happens when the values of two measures suddenly move and move in opposite directions compared to their previous trend. This often points out a variation in prices momentum. Based on the analysis of market experts and data, this article highlights five major divergence signals – three for Bitcoin and two for altcoins – to help investors better understand market prospects.
3 signals of divergence in April point a bitcoin price rally
Historically, Bitcoin and the Doxy index (US Dollar Index) move in opposite directions. When Dxy increases, Bitcoin tends to fall, and vice versa. But from September 2024 to March 2025, Bitcoin and the DXY came in the same direction.
This correlation broke out in April when the United States announced a new pricing policy. The opposite relationship seems to have returned.
Joe Consorti, responsible for growth in Theyabitcoin, noted that Bitcoin had started to decline the US dollar after the pricing regime was announced. A table of its article shows that in April, while the Dxy has increased from 103.5 to 98.5, Bitcoin rose from about $ 75,000 to more than $ 91,000.
This divergence can reflect investors turning to Bitcoin as a package active, in the midst of global economic uncertainty caused by prices.
“Bitcoin diverged from the US dollar since the United States announced its tariff regime.
Another key divergence comes from Tuur Demeester, a blockstream advisor. He underlined a separation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index, which represents technological actions. Historically, Bitcoin followed the Nasdaq closely because of its links with technology and macroeconomic feeling.
But in April 2025, Bitcoin began to show independent growth. He no longer synchronizes with the Nasdaq. While some, like the boring, argue that this divergence is not necessarily optimistic, Demeester remains optimistic.
“Bitcoin divergence” and “Bitcoin Decoupling” will be the main main titles for 2025, “said Turur Demeester.
More specifically, the NASDAQ faced the downward pressure of interest rate problems and slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown force, with significant price gains. This suggests that Bitcoin cements its role of autonomous asset less linked to traditional markets.
Cryptoque data highlights another divergence – this time in investors’ behavior. Long -term Bitcoin holders (LTH, those who held the BTC for more than 155 days) started to accumulate after the recent local summit.
On the other hand, short -term holders (STH) are sold. This divergence often signals the early stage of a reactive phase and refers to a future price rebound.
“Why is this divergence important?” Behavior is generally associated with macro conviction, not speculative movements. STH activity is often emotional and reactive, driven by price volatility and fear. When the LTH accumulation responds to the capitulation of the STH, it tends to report the first stages of a reactive phase ”, it tech, an cryptocient analyst predicted.
Altcoin Recovery at the corner of the street
The divergence signals also appeared for Altcoins, indicating a positive short -term perspective.
Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Realvision, underlined a key divergence using the “New Lows” indicator at 365 days. This metric follows the number of altcoins that have reached their lowest point in the past year.
In April 2025, although the market capitalization of Altcoin fell to a new hollow, the number of altcoins reaching new 365 -day stockings decreased considerably. Historically, this model often precedes a recovery in Altcoin stock market capitalizations.
“The divergence shows that the momentum was exhausted,” said Jamie Coutts.
In simpler terms, less altcoins reaching the bottom of the rocks means less sale of panic. This suggests that the negative feeling of the market is weakening. At the same time, the rise in prices show a renewal of purchasing interests. These factors suggest that altcoins can prepare for recovery – or even an “Altcoin season”, a period when altcoins surpass bitcoin.
Another technical divergence comes from the RSI (relative force index) on the Bitcoin dominance table (BTC.D), noted by analyst Merlijn The Trader. This graph reflects the share of bitcoin of the total market capitalization of cryptography.
“The down divergence identified on BTC.d. higher highs on the graph. Lower highs on RSI. This configuration does not lie. The force of Altcoin is preparing. Monitor commercial configurations,” said Merlijn.
This pure technical divergence suggests that BTC.D could soon be undergoing a strong correction. If this happens, investors can move more altcoin capital.
The Altcoin market capitalization (Total3) rebounded by 20% in April, from $ 660 billion to more than $ 800 billion. The divergence signals discussed above suggest that this recovery could continue.
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