Gold (XAU / USD) hit a new higher record almost $ 3,790 before correcting below.
Investors will examine the high-level data versions of the United States to decide whether the XAU / USD rally could continue in the short term.
Gold between the consolidation phase below
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The climbing of geopolitical tensions allowed gold to bring together a bullish momentum at the beginning of the week. The news of the NATO forces intercepting three Russian fighters from the MIG-31 after entering Estonia airspace kept investors at the forefront and strengthened the request for a stay.
After increasing more than 1.5% on Monday, XAU / USD continued to push higher Tuesday and reached a new summit of all time at $ 3,791. XAU / EUR and XAU / GBP also reached a record summit after the disappointing versions of data from the purchasing managers (PMI), showing that gold has managed to capture capital outings outside the euro and the pound sterling.
In the second half of the day, the renewal of the strength of the US dollar (USD) on the cautious tone of the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, on the data on policies and data of September S&P Global PMI, which showed that commercial activity in the private sector continued to extend to a healthy rate, made XAU / USD retired.
While speaking on Tuesday on economic prospects, Powell reiterated that they will ensure that a punctual increase in prices does not become a problem of current inflation. He also noted that they will examine the labor market, growth and inflation data to assess whether the policy is in the right place by the next meeting.
The USD continued to surpass its rivals on Wednesday after data showed that new house sales increased by 20.5% in August, which supported concerns about housing market conditions. On Thursday, the USD collected an optimistic momentum after the US Economic Analysis Bureau (BEA) announced that it had revised gross domestic product growth (GDP) annulized for the second quarter to 3.8% against 3.3% in the previous estimate.
In addition, orders for sustainable goods increased by 2.9% in August, exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 0.5% by a large margin, and the initial weekly complaints of unemployment decreased to 218,000 against 232,000 the previous week. The resistance to the large base USD made XAU / USD remain in a consolidation phase at around $ 3,750 in the second half.
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The final version of the week’s data has shown that annual inflation in the United States, as measured by the variation in the price index of personal consumer expenditure (PCE), increased to 2.7% in August, compared to 2.6% in July. The basic PCE price index, which excludes volatile prices from food and energy, increased by 2.9% during the same period, corresponding to the increase in July and the estimation of analysts. These figures have been widely ignored by market players.
However, the bullish opening of Wall Street caused the USD’s interest to be lost and allowed Gold to spread more Friday in the American session.
Gold investors will examine American data to Evaluate Fed policy perspectives
The American economic calendar will offer several high -level data versions that could influence the pricing of the Fed’s political perspectives and stimulate the GOD assessment in the short term.
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The Fedwatch tool of the CME group shows that the markets are largely expecting that Fed opted for another drop in the rate of 25 points (BPS) in October. The probability of an additional rate reduction in December is maintained at around 60%, compared to almost 80% before the above -mentioned American data. Powell and several other political decision -makers have recognized the increase in risks for the labor market and explained that the drop in September rates was appropriate to compensate for these risks.
Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish data on Jolts job openings for August. Although this is widely considered to be a late indicator, a significant drop, with a reading of less than 7 million, or a significant positive surprise greater than 7.5 million could trigger a simple reaction.
The ADP job change and PMI manufacturing data from the ISM for September will be monitored close to the middle of the week. In the event that the payroll of the private sector increases by more than 70,000 and the title of PMI manufacturing is recovered in the expansion territory greater than 50, the USD could preserve its strength and lower the XAU / USD.
On Friday, the non -agitated wage bill could increase market volatility. After the lamentable readings of the last months, another disappointing NFP impression could reaffirm a drop in rate of the Fed in December and weigh heavily on the bond yields of the USD and American Treasury.
In this scenario, gold could bring together a bullish momentum before the weekend. Conversely, the USD could extend its rally and weigh heavily on XAU / USD if the PFN arrives above 70,000 and relieves concerns about labor market conditions.
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Technical analysis of gold
Despite the recent reducer, the gold remains technically exaggerated with the indicator of the relative resistance index (RSI) on the daily graphic which maintains well above 70. Nevertheless, XAU / USD remains in the upper half of the nine-month ascending regression channel and is negotiated well above the simple 20-day mobile average (SMA), suggesting that the budgetary bias remains intact with the potential Simple technical correction.
Upon decrease, $ 3,670 (half-point of the upward regression channel, 20-day SMA) align as the first support, followed from $ 3,500 to $ 3,480 (static level, round level, SMA of 50 days). Looking north, the first level of resistance could be identified at $ 3,790 at $ 3,800 (record level, round) $ 3,860 (upper limit of the ascending canal) and $ 3,900 (round level).
