Goldman Sachs recently revised his forecasts, now awaiting the Federal reserve The next interest rate fell in December 2025, a change compared to their previous prediction of July 2025. This adjustment aligned with their updated economic prospects, which includes an increase in GDP growth from 2025 to 1% and a peak in inflation of the PCE reduced by 3.6%. They anticipate three decreases in prices of 25 basic points in 2025 and 2026, citing factors such as the risk of recession linked to prices and the relaxation of financial conditions.
Goldman Sachs forecasts suggest a cautious approach to the federal reserve, prioritizing inflation control over the immediate economic stimulus. Their high GDP Growth forecasts (1% for 2025) indicate a slight optimism, but the decrease in the delayed rate reflects concerns concerning persistent inflationary pressures, potentially exacerbated by tariff policies or disturbances of the supply chain. The reduced nucleus Pce The peak of inflation (3.6%) implies that inflation can moderate but remain above the target target of the Fed, requiring higher prolonged rates to cool the demand.
Market expectations and financial conditions
A drop in later rate could temper market expectations for rapid monetary softening, potentially leading to short -term more strict financial conditions. This can increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, an impact on sectors such as housing, cars and high capital industries. Stock markets, in particular growth shares, can face opposite winds due to higher discount rate, while bond yields could remain high, affecting fixed income investors.
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Goldman Sachs cites the risk of recession linked to prices as a factor. Delayed rate drops could amplify these risks if economic growth vacillates in higher rates, especially in sectors sensitive to trade. However, their forecasts of only three 25 -point cuts until 2026 suggest progressive relaxation to alleviate a hard landing. Higher interest rates for longer could alleviate consumer spending and commercial investments, slowing down economic momentum. Households can delay significant purchases and businesses can evolve expansion plans, especially in industries sensitive to rates such as real estate and manufacturing.
Goldman Sachs align with bellizers who prioritize inflation control, expecting the Fed maintaining higher rates to prevent overheating. This point of view is supported by recent data showing sticky inflation and robust use, which suggests that the economy can resist high rates. Some economists and market players anticipate previous cuts (for example, mid-2025), arguing that inflation tends to decrease and that growth can weaken more quickly than expected. They highlight the softening of labor markets and global uncertainties as reasons for previous relaxation.
Market price, based on Fed Futuresoften leans towards previous cuts (for example, Q2 or Q3 2025) compared to the prediction of December 2025 of Goldman Sachs. This difference reflects the optimism of investors on the cooling of inflation faster or the Fed reacting to the slowdowns of potential growth. The ditch creates volatility, because the markets adapt to bellising signals in companies like Goldman Sachs or Fed Communications.
Pricing policies and budgetary measures (for example, potential tax reductions or infrastructure expenditure) could widen the fracture. Hawks can contest these policies to fuel inflation, justifying delayed cuts, while doves can see them as temporary shocks requiring support from the anterior Fed. Political pressures, in particular during a post-electoral year, could influence the decisions of the Fed, some advocating reductions to stimulate growth, contrasting the prudent prospects of Goldman Sachs.
The forecast by Goldman Sachs of a drop in rates of December 2025 reports an extended period of higher interest rate, with implications for slower growth, high borrowing costs and increased recession risks. The gap between bellicic forecasts like Goldman Sachs and dominant expectations highlights uncertainty about inflation, growth and political impacts. The markets will probably remain sensitive to the Fed signals, economic data and geopolitical developments, which stimulates the volatility of asset prices and economic planning.
