The production of crude oil from Nigeria climbed an average of 1.78 million barrels per day (COPD) in July, marking a significant improvement compared to previous months, but in less of the reference of 2.06 million BPD set for the 2025 budget.
Development, announced by Gbenga Komolafe, director general of the Nigerian regulatory committee upstream upstream (NUPRC), when the country intensifies efforts to recover from the years of chronic sub-production caused by insecurity, the theft of oil and the underinvestment.
Speaking on Monday at a conference on energy, Komolafe said that production gains were largely due to the improvement of security operations in the Niger Delta region, where most of the Nigeria Brut is extracted. He noted that the government is still trying to increase production to 3 million barrels per day, a national target for a long time.
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Komolafe said that the current average amounts to 1.78 million barrels per day, which includes condensates, adding that improvement results from collaboration with stakeholders to reduce losses and ensure transparency.
Nigeria, the best oil producer in Africa, depends on gross oil exports for about two -thirds of government income and more than 80% of foreign currency gains. The improvement of production is therefore essential not only for the generation of income, but also for the stabilization of Naira and the financing of government programs in the midst of inflation and increase in debt services.
However, analysts claim that current production levels are far from sufficient. The 2025 national budget was written with a crude oil production reference of 2.06 million b / d – a target which remains elusive despite recent gains.
Nigeria’s obligation is added to Nigeria’s pressure to provide crude to the Dangote refinery, which began operations this year. With its refining capacity of 650,000 b / d, the refinery had to get crude from the outside, including the United States and other producers, because the internal supply of the Nigeria has remained inconsistent.
Meanwhile, the organization of oil exporting countries (OPEC) said that the average daily oil production in Nigeria had reached 1.505 million b / d in June, based on figures from the Nigerian authorities. This marked an increase of 3.58% compared to the 1.453 million B / J-recorded in May and was the highest level since January. He also pointed out that Nigeria met the OPEC quota in 2025 1.5 million B / BPD for the second time this year. However, OPEC’s secondary sources estimated the production slightly higher at 1.547 million b / d.
In its latest performance report, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) said that total sales of crude oil and condensate fell at 21.68 million barrels in June, compared to 24.77 million barrels in May. However, gas production increased marginally to 7.581 billion standard cubic feet per day (BSCF / J) of 7.352 billion BSCF / J.
Despite the drop in raw sales, the downstream segment has shown signs of recovery. The availability of fuel at NNPC Retail Limited stations improved 71% in June, against 62% in May, pointing to the supply of the supply chain.
The NNPCL also announced that it had made a profit after tax of 905 billion Nairas for June 2025 and recorded a turnover of 4.571 Billions of Nairas, supported by an improvement in the production of crude and gas.
However, the gap between actual production and budget projection presents a risk for macroeconomic planning. Industry stakeholders and economists urge the government to urgently fill the gaps in infrastructure, end the gross flight and prioritize investments in upstream activities if the country must comply with its budgetary and energy obligations.
According to experts, broader implications include possible budget revisions or the need for additional loans, which could deepen the Nigeria debt crisis and erode limited gains made of oil and gas.
