Apple’s pivot in India reshapes the global smartphone supply chain.
In April 2025, India iPhones expeditions to the United States increased by 76% over a year to around 3 million units, according to CANALYS figures compiled by OMDIA.
During the same period, iPhone shipments from China dived from 76% to only 900,000 units.
These figures reflect a major change in Apple’s production and export strategy while working to navigate American-Chinese trade tensions, including new prices imposed under the administration of President Donald Trump.
The spectacular reversal between Indian and Chinese export volumes is the result of Apple’s multi -year effort to isolate itself from geopolitical instability.
The change accelerated after the reciprocal prices announced by Trump on April 2, 2025, targeting key imports, including technological equipment.
Although consumer electronics and iPhones was temporarily exempt from the list of prices on April 11, Apple’s transition to India remains in progress, driven both by strategic planning and long -term manufacturing investments.
IPhone production in India is reaching a new step
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Apple first started to accelerate Indian manufacturing during the COVVI-19 pandemic, as part of a broader effort to diversify its supply chain.
The company’s strategy now seems to bear fruit. In March, India exceeded China in iPhone expeditions to the United States for the first time, and in April, the trend continued on a large scale.
OMDIA Xuan Chiew Research Director has attributed Apple’s “aggressive” response to pricing risks, including preventive storage and accelerated assembly operations.
Despite this increase, India’s current manufacturing capacity is not yet large enough to completely replace China.
The demand for an American iPhone reaches an average of around 20 million units per quarter, and India should only reach this level 2026.
The final assembly may have moved to India, but a large part of the production of sub-assembly is still based in China.
According to Daniel Newman, CEO of Futurum Group, Apple simply moved the last stage of production, which implies a “low elevator” compared to the revision of the entire manufacturing process.
Apple faces the pressure of Trump and Beijing
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Apple’s strategy in India may not satisfy all stakeholders. President Trump clearly said he wanted iPhones sold in the United States to be built at the national level.
On Friday, he threatened a 25% rate on all imported iPhones via a publication on social networks, warning that production “should not be in India or anywhere else”.
Analysts believe that although Apple’s decision is designed to avoid China -centered risks, it may not achieve Trump’s location objectives.
Meanwhile, China takes measures to make diversification more difficult. Indian media reports suggest that Beijing has restricted the export of advanced machines and talents necessary to support Apple Indian suppliers.
This could complicate efforts to build a more independent production ecosystem in India.
Although Apple CEO, Tim Cook, reiterated at the beginning of May that most of the iPhones sold in the United States would be manufactured in India, the company still depends on Chinese inputs and the infrastructure of the supply chain.
Future growth could slow down despite a strong start
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The growth of iPhone exports from India should not continue at the same rate during the rest of the year.
Analysts warn that infrastructure, logistics and talent constraints in India could limit Apple’s capacity to evolve more in 2025.
The production of high -end models like the iPhone 16 Pro has just started in India, and delays in the rise in power could affect overall production.
Although China’s Apple’s lag is a long -term strategic decision, short -term disturbances remain possible.
Analysts say that the company is marching a border between the management of trade risks of the United States and the conservation of critical components from China.
India may be emerging as the next major Apple production center, but it is not yet a complete replacement.
