The main dishes to remember:
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The Bitcoin implicit volatility index fell to its lowest level since September 2023, referring to a potential break.
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The draw of the short -term holder is carried out at -8%, which is historically a bullish accumulation zone.
The recent Bitcoin (BTC) price indicates a silent accumulation phase, but the data show that these low volatility scenarios rarely last last.
The 30 -day implicit volatility index (BVIV) for the BTC fell to 40.84, falling below the threshold at 45, a level has only been raped in the past 149 weeks (since September 2022). Historically, this area preceded periods of accumulation or local funds, and was followed by strong ascending movements. In particular, the last time BVIV flew over this bottom, in September 2023, the BTC joined almost 50% against $ 26,000.
Since the end of 2022, each weekly fence below 45 on the BVIV corresponded to periods of price consolidation or important optimistic inversions in Bitcoin, reinforcing the idea that the compression of current volatility could again prepare the ground for an upward escape, if the historical models are true.
For the moment, there are signs of structural evolution. Although BTC is reaching new heights of all time and rallying strongly in May 2025, the volatility made of 30 days continued to compress, currently sitting in the 10th centile of the last decade.
The bitch noted that this indicates a change of diet: Bitcoin can mature in an active ingredient capable of providing yields with less turbulence, an attractive feature for institutional beneficiaries managing exposure to volatility.
If this new volatility regime is valid, BVIV may remain moderate longer than in previous cycles, delaying a strong increase in prices based on volatility. That said, the behavior passed around these levels has biased biased, and investors could closely monitor any deviation.
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Short -term Bitcoin holders show a calm conviction
Onchain’s data show that the behavior of short -term holders (STH) continues to report confidence. The ceiling reduction made STH is currently at -8%, which indicates that the new market players are seated on manageable paper loss. Historically, this area has served as a launch rather than a break in breakage, signaling a limited panic and a low forced sale.
The STH Market Value / Creation of the value (MVRV) ratio also supports this point of view, currently at 1.19, compared to the cycle of 1.33 in November 2024. This shows a drop in speculative risk taking, holders choosing to sit tight rather than leaving small winnings.
Likewise, Glassnod data also noted that the range of $ 110,000 to $ 117,000 is gradually fills up. BTC accumulates on higher and lower sides of the spectrum, buyers intervene on drops, while the first investors remain comfortable acquiring at higher levels. This created a basic staircase cost distribution, a bullish structural model suggesting an organized accumulation rather than emotional trade.
STH’s offer reflects an increase at 4.58 million 4.36 million BTC, adding 227,000 BTC to active traffic. This suggests that the new demand continues to enter the market, or long -term holders run part of their assets.
Related: “the biggest trade agreement of all time” – 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.
