While the conflict between Israel and Iran degenerates, the Bitcoin price (BTC) has remained stable.
A look back on previous conflicts shows a similar trend, with factors such as adoption and institutional participation playing a key role.
Analysts like André Dragosch, research manager at the ETP Platform group, etc. From Bitwise, argued that the price of bitcoin can suffer in the days which followed the triggering of a conflict. Although the volatility of the BTC price is global on a downward trend, it is always considered a risky asset and should be sold quickly when a war breaks out.
However, like Mithil Thakore, co-founder and CEO of Bitcoin L2 Liquidity Protocol Velar, previously declared to Cointelegraph: “In the longer term, geopolitical conflicts increase the higher inflation rate prospects due to factors such as increased budgetary expenses, more loose monetary policy, disturbances of the supply chain and supply chain and supply chain and supply chain and Sponsorship price, which should all the advantages. ”.
Looking at the past events of geopolitical instability, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, but a lack of movement does not necessarily mean that bitcoin is a hedge in times of uncertainty.
Here is an overview of a few cases where the price of bitcoin reacted or not reacted, with large -scale armed conflicts in the world:
War of Israel-Iran (June 13, 2025)
On June 13, Israel struck dozens of goals in Iran in the largest attack on the country since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. The two countries, arc rivals in the Middle East, continued striking missile strikes against each other in the following days.
Despite the concerns about a wider escalation, including the calls of Israel to involve the United States, the markets have largely increased concerns. Bitcoin is no exception.
While the assets saw a brief drop immediately after the start of the attacks, the price was largely recovered. Crypto ZA analyst said: “Bitcoin does not yet seem concerned about the conflict of Israel and Iran.”
In relation: Bitcoin plunges in the middle of the reports that Trump described as advisers in the situation room
Perhaps the most famous Bitcoin Bull, Michael Saylor, is also imperturbable. On June 16, his company, Strategy, acquired 10,001 BTC for $ 1 billion. The purchase comes after the third privileged actions supported by Bitcoin de Strategy, Strd, began to negotiate on the Nasdaq on June 11.
Bombing of the Embassy of Israel-Iran (April 1, 2024)
On April 1, 2024, Israel struck an Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, killing several senior officials. In response, Iran seized the Israeli series of the MSC ship and launched a series of attacks on Israel on April 13.
After the two dates, the price of bitcoin experienced a brief movement of decline, the BTC losing more than 8% just after the reprisals of April 13.
However, as the markets got used to the new standard, Bitcoin too, and he continued to mount.
War of Israel-Gaza (October 7, 2023)
On October 7, 2023, the forces of Hamas in Gaza struck targets within Israel, killing more than 1,000 Israelis and triggering a crisis of war and humanitarian which is still underway.
The Israeli markets have experienced immediate dramatic losses, while the main weapons manufacturers like Lockheed Martin saw points in the course of the shares.
Bitcoin remained quite unchanged and 50 days after the initial attacks, it worked well above where it started.
Following the attacks, the reports that Hamas had collected crypto funds led to a renewal of regulatory calls to closely regulate space, the American treasure sanctioning an cryptography operator based in Gaza with alleged links with the group.
The Blockchain’s judicial firm, Elliptic, said that there was “no evidence” to support the collection of Hamas in Crypto collection funds.
The large -scale invasion of Ukraine in Russia (February 24, 2022)
At the beginning of 2022, after eight years of war in the Donbas region in Ukraine, Russia launched a large -scale invasion in what Moscow calls a “special military operation”.
The global financial markets were immediately affected, the economies closest to Ukraine suffering from the worst. By offending to this trend, the price of Bitcoin increased upwards and increased by 16% only five days after the invasion.
Exchanges in Russia and Ukraine have seen the cryptography trade in attractive bonuses while people fleeing abroad sought to circumvent money controls with cryptocurrency.
A week after the start of the war, Ukraine had received more than $ 70 million in cryptocurrency donations, mainly in Ether (ETH).
Bitcoin sang later that year, but it was fueled by the collapse of the Terra Stablecoin ecosystem and other market events, more than concerns about the war in Ukraine.
Bitcoin prices and internal conflicts
Although the crypto can serve an asset at risk in times of conflict in certain parts of the world, its price movements seem to ignore internal conflicts outside of those who affect traditional markets in Europe, the Middle East and North America.
In November 2020, the war broke out in the Tigray region in Ethiopia after years of tension between the left ethno-nationalist Tray Front of the People and the federal governments of Eritrea and Ethiopia.
The war, which made hundreds of thousands of deaths and millions displaced internally, was characterized by the Catholic Near East Welfare Association as sub-declary. A 2024 geographical report called it “the war that the world has forgotten”.
The price of Bitcoin has not noticed either. The main story that dominates the cryptography market was then the unprecedented bull race of assets, largely by the concerns of the inflation of the pandemic and the institutional adoption of COVID-19 by block (then square) and the strategy (then microstrategia).
Later that year, just a few months after the start of the Tigray war on February 1, 2021, the Tatmadaw of Myanmar overturned the National League for Democracy in a coup, causing a civil war, which is underway.
A month later, the price of Bitcoin would reach its summit at all times of $ 69,000.
Bitcoin and “proximity” to the conflict
A key factor in the discussion of the reaction of Bitcoin to conflict is the extent to which bitcoin is adopted-that is to say, has an exposure or correlation with traditional markets.
Some economists have noted the effect of the geographic proximity of the conflict. The financial markets of countries closer to a conflict area will see more volatility and losses.
The overall adoption of cryptography is the highest in developing countries, India, Nigeria and Indonesia leading the pack, according to the global adoption index of the 2024 chain channel. This index includes the onchain crypto and the retail value received by the centralized services, and the crypto and the retail value of ONCHAIN received by the Protocols DEFI.
In relation: Blackrock leads entries of $ 412 million Bitcoin ETF in the middle of the Israel-Iran conflict
Bitcoin, in comparison, finds the property increasingly concentrated between Western institutions and global governments. In December 2024, 1% of Bitcoin belonged to ETF alone, more than by Satoshi Nakamoto.
The biggest holders are now ETF issues like Blackrock, regulated crypto exchanges like Kraken and Coinbase and even the US government.
Bitcoin only appreciated this degree of adoption recently and, consequently, the exposure to traditional financial markets and institutional investments.
In 2013, Bitcoin continued what some consider his first big bull race. It started the year at $ 13, crossing $ 100 by April and $ 200 by October. The end of the year saw him close more than $ 1,000.
A “crypto winter” began the following year, in addition to two armed conflicts: the donbas war, including the annexation of Crimea by Russia and the 2014 Gaza War.
Meanwhile, the crypto was still in a niche industry and minors could use the graphics card on their game computers to exploit Bitcoin. Kraken and Coinbase were only three and two years old, respectively.
The institutional involvement was next to nonexistent, and many considered crypto as “magic internet money” only to accommodate illegal online activities.
While the beginning of the two conflicts affected the stock markets, both at the regional level and more distant, there was no discussion in the cryptographic media, as it existed at the time, of the effect of wars on the price of bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s reaction to war could change
Now, with increasing institutional adoption, an American government and friendly business conferences in thousands, the Bitcoin price can be more influenced by armed conflicts of negative forces on the markets.
Almost all the conflicts above, which saw the prices of Bitcoin, rebounded quickly, occurred before a generalized institutional adoption. This paradigm shift saw the story about the passage of Bitcoin from a risk to an asset at risk. BTC has more correlation with traditional financial markets than before.
However, analysts are cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin in the current climate. QCP said in a note of June 16 that climbing could see oil prices increase, in particular an “Iranian blocking of the Hormuz Strait”, with a potential participation of the United States disrupting world risk assets.
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