Key points:
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Low labor and consumption data often precedes Bitcoin gatherings, which has led some analysts to anticipate future economic recovery programs.
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Job offers fell to 7.2 million in March against the 7.5 million forecasts and consumer confidence has reached its lowest level since January 2021.
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If the past models are held, Bitcoin could rally in mid-July and perhaps reach $ 140,000 by October 2025.
Macroeconomic conditions have long been considered a major influence on the prices of cryptocurrencies. Generally, Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins work badly when investors fear that employment and consumption data are weakening.
According to a JOLTS report from the American Labor Department published on April 29, job offers in March approached their lowest levels in four years. US employers posted 7.2 million vacancies in March, below the 7.5 million economists had planned. Meanwhile, American consumer confidence has dropped for the fifth consecutive month in April, reaching its lowest point since January 2021.
The worsening of the conditions increases the chances that central banks will introduce economic recovery measures, which makes uncertainty in the cryptocurrency markets. As a rule, additional liquidity encourages investments in risky assets such as Bitcoin, as more capital goes in the economy.
Future expectations count more than today’s weak economic data
The last time the United States has dropped to job offers and weakening consumer confidence, it was between January and June 2024. In the three months that followed, the Bitcoin price moved between $ 53,000 and $ 66,000. Then a gathering of 60% started in mid-October, pushing the BTC above $ 100,000. The end result was positive, but it took more than 105 days for this effect to show on the cryptocurrency market.
Although these conditions may seem to worry at first, the lower work and the feeling of consumers are generally behind. Financial markets and companies base their decisions on the expectations of future economic growth, rather than on past data. In addition, improving feeling among cryptographic investors tends to come after confirmation of better macroeconomic conditions. This explains why the 105 -day lag is not unusual.
Before 2024, a similar situation occurred between January and June 2023, with a drop in labor market data and consumer confidence. The following four months were difficult because the Bitcoin price dropped from 18% to $ 25,000. It took 115 days for the price to recover at $ 30,500 by the end of October. However, the following two months were very positive, BTC winning 45% to reach $ 43,900.
The last time in the past eight years, when the labor market and consumer confidence have suffered significantly, it was between February 2020 and May 2020, just after the implementation of COVVI-19 locking. This period saw Bitcoin down briefly below $ 4,000 on March 13, 2020. Consequently, a longer consolidation period was expected before investors found trust in the cryptographic markets.
In relation: Bitcoin acts as “value blind that it is` in the middle of chaos of Trump’s policy: Nydig
Could Bitcoin reach $ 140,000 by October?
By thinking about macroeconomic data, there was no major impact on bitcoin between May 2020 and September 2020, because its price went from $ 8,900 to $ 10,600, a gain of 20%. However, the following 60 days brought an impressive rally of 85% to $ 19,700. For the third time, the lower data of the workforce and the feelings of consumers seemed before a rally at the prices of Bitcoin.
While the time between the lowest point of economic conditions and the Bitcoin rally varied from 105 to 130 days, the result was clear in the three cases. Consequently, if American job offers and consumer confidence is improving compared to April 2025, it is likely that the Bitcoin price will begin to increase by mid-July. If history is repeated, this could mean a minimum target of $ 140,000 by October 2025, but other positive macroeconomic data is necessary to confirm these perspectives.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and must not be considered as legal or investment advice. The points of view, the thoughts and opinions expressed here are the only of the author and do not reflect or do not necessarily represent the opinions and opinions of Cointellegraph.
