The main dishes to remember:
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The Bitcoin risk signal fell to 23.7, its lowest since March 2019, indicating a low risk of correction and a high probability of developing the bullish trend.
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Despite the recent drop in network activity, Macro Haussiers indicators such as the macro-chain index (MCI) suggest that Bitcoin could soon reach $ 100,000.
On May 5, the Bitcoin risk signal, an indicator that uses onchain and exchange data to assess the risk of correction, fell to its lowest level (23.7) for the first time since March 27, 2019, when Bitcoin (BTC) exchanged $ 4,000. The signal is currently in the blue zone, which historically suggests a low risk of correction and a high probability of upward trend. When the oscillator rises above 60 or becomes red, this implies a high risk of lower movement.
In 2019, the same signal preceded an astonishing rally of 1,550% which saw Bitcoin hover over $ 68,000 in 2021.
Cryptoch data indicate that the risk signal combines six measures: the drop and volatility upwards, exchange entries, financing rates, long -term interest and market capitalization. Collectively, they provide a balanced view of the risk of correction, making the signal a gauge focused on data for market trends.
The last time the risk signal indicated a low -risk investment environment, Bitcoin was estimated at $ 4,000. Several factors can explain the disparity of prices.
The launch of funds (ETF) of Spot Bitcoin Exchange (ETF) in the United States in 2024 opened valves to institutional capital, increasing demand and stabilizing prices. In fact, FNB and public companies now hold 9% of the Bitcoin supply.
🚨Latest: FNB and public companies now hold 9% of Bitcoin’s offer! SPOT ETF has 5.5% only one year after launch, while public companies like Strategy hold 3.5%. Institutional adoption is to reshape $ BTC– supply market, changing dynamics. 👀👀
(H / t: @ecoinometry )) pic.twitter.com/ic892rvep2
– Cointelegraph Markets & Research (@cointelegraphmt) May 3, 2025
Fidelity’s digital asset data noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has decreased by three to four times that of shares, down three-digit volatility in its first years, as illustrated in the graph below. Between 2019 and 2025, the volatility carried out annualized at 1 year has dropped by more than 80%.
This maturity market absorbs capital entries with less price disruption. Thus, the growing adoption of the dominant current, the regulatory clarity and the growing role of Bitcoin as a coverage against inflation strengthened its value, fixing a higher price compared to 2019.
Related: Bitcoin Price Forms Two BTC term shortcomings after Coinbase Premium Flips negative
Macro Bitcoin indicators Haussiers Flash signals
Cointelegraph recently pointed out that the macro-chain index (MCI), a composite of onchain and macroeconomic measures, has lit a purchase signal for the first time since 2022, when it predicts the bottom of the market at $ 15,500.
Historically, MCI’s RSI Crossover preceded massive rallies, such as overvoltage of more than 500% in 2019. Combined with an increase in long -term interest and favorable funding rates, the MCI suggests that Bitcoin could break $ 100,000 in the coming weeks.
The anonymous Crypto Darkfost analyst stressed that the activity index of the Bitcoin network has decreased sharply, reflecting a reduction in the volume of transactions and fewer addresses active daily since December 2024. The drop in UTXOS also indicates the demand for block decline, a model often seen on the bear markets.
However, the analyst explained that he does not confirm a lower perspective. Macro indicators remain strongly optimistic, which suggests that this lull could be a strategic entry point for long -term investors.
Related: How many Bitcoin Berkshire can buy?
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Each investment and negotiation movement involves risks and readers should conduct their own research when they make a decision.
