Nigeria’s External Reserves Rise to $40.11bn, But Naira Stagnates Above N1500/$1, Raising Concerns

The external reserves of Nigeria climbed $ 40.11 billion in July 2025, marking an important step in the continuous effort of the country to stabilize its foreign exchange market and rebuild confidence in its economy.

The Governor of the Central Bank, Yemi Cardoso, revealed the development during the briefing of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held on Monday, July 22.

Cardoso said the current level of reserves was sufficient to cover 9.5 months of imports, describing it as a solid rebound for the country’s foreign currency stamp. It is the highest level since November 2024 when the reserves reached $ 40.2 billion. The increase, he noted, was motivated by a combination of improvement in crude oil production, an increase in non-oil exports, a reduction in imports and a renewal of capital entries in the Nigerian economy.

According to Cardoso, the exchange market has also recorded signs of relative stability, attributed to supported entries and a stricter monetary policy position aimed at limiting inflation and defending Naira. He argued that recent interventions by Apex Bank, including interest rates and policy adjustments, began to give results.

But despite the optimism painted by increasing reserves and improved market conditions, the Naira remained obstinately greater than N1500 in the dollar. This caused growing skepticism on the effectiveness of the central bank strategies. Some economists ask: if the reserves are effectively developing, why does the Nairanot gain in force?

For months, the Naira has hovered over the N1500 / $ 1 threshold on the official and parallel markets, a rate that many consider to be incompatible with the level of foreign reserves reported. The gap between macroeconomic fundamentals and the real performance of the local currency has raised concerns concerning the sustainability of registered capital entries. Some analysts argue that entries can be largely short -term investments that are looking for high yields of high interest rates in Nigeria, rather than long -term confidence in the economy.

However, the central bank insists that the prospects remain positive. Cardoso explained that inflation should decrease more in the coming months due to the tight monetary position, the expected stability of exchange rates, the downward movement of the price of petrol (PMS) and the start of the harvest season, which should increase food supply and facilitate pressure on consumer prices.

The MPC briefing has also noted that the current economic management of Nigeria is supported by improvements in the key sectors. The production of crude oil resumed after better security in the Niger Delta and renewed efforts to slow down the flight of oil. Non -oil exports have also experienced a modest growth, especially in agriculture and solid minerals. On the other hand, imports have decreased, drawn in part by high exchange rates and the transition to local substitutes, contributing more to preserving the currencies.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest projections, supported the possibility of macroeconomic recovery. The fund provides that Nigeria inflation will fall to 23% in 2025 and drop more than 18% in 2026, reflecting the planned effects of a tight monetary policy and improved supply chains. The IMF, the IMF provides that Nigeria GDP will increase by 3.3% this year, compared to 2.9% in 2024. The expected recovery in the oil sector and the progress of agriculture is considered the main engines of this growth.

The Central Bank’s monetary policy committee is expected to meet again on September 22 and 23 to assess the country’s economic conditions and determine the next stages of its monetary strategy.

But in the meantime, many Nigerians remain cautious. While the figures presented suggest stability on paper, the lived reality of a weakened currency, obstinate inflation and a fragile purchasing power continues to cause public confidence in proclaimed gains.