Naira Projected to Trade Between N1,500–N1,600 in H2 2025 Amid CBN Interventions and Oil Market Volatility 

Optimum global financial analysts have planned that Naira will be negotiated between 1,500 N and 1,600 N in the dollar in the second half of 2025, assuming that Nigeria supports the current and continuous macroeconomic stability of targeted interventions.

The forecasts, published in the perspectives of newly published semester of the company entitled “anchored policy, risks not anchored”, is based on the trends of the first semester and provide a moderate perspective for the local currency in the midst of a still volutile global energy landscape.

The report underlines the strategic currency interventions of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as a critical factor which helped maintain the Nairas afloat in the face of several external opposite winds, in particular the strong fluctuations of oil prices and an increased exchange demand.

Recapitulation in the first half: from stability to volatility and back

The Naira opened the relatively strong year, trading at around 1,537 N / $ in early January. At the end of the month, he appreciated 1,480 N, largely due to a temporary increase in crude oil prices from Brent, which crossed $ 76 a barrel, while Nigerian oil mixtures have granted even higher bonuses in the world markets.

However, this force was short -lived. Between February and April, the Naira has weakened regularly, reaching a hollow of 1,596 n, because the oil prices plunged below $ 60 per barrel. This price collapse followed the announcement of OPEC that it would increase oil production to 2.2 million barrels per day by November, starting with an increase of nearly one million barrels per day between April and June. The prospect of a higher global offer has lowered prices, weakening the Forex profits from Nigeria and the confidence of investors.

The trend turned from May to June, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have revived fears of supply disruption. The conflicts between Iran and Israel, and the American imports of Iran on the Strait of Hormuz – a point of narrow critical oil draft – made prices back down. The Nigerian crude has exchanged above $ 70 a barrel, restoring a certain force in Naira. At the end of June, the currency had climbed approximately 1,530 n, recovering almost 3% of its hollow of April.

CBN dollars sales and reserves are covered the Naira

Optimum global analysts attribute coherent CBN interventions to soften the impact of external shocks. In particular, a significant injection of $ 197.71 million on April 4 contributed to stabilizing the market in the midst of increased pressure on the drop in oil and larger global economic volatility. At the time, the United States had just introduced new import rates on several business partners, which sparked risks aversion and dollars’ hoarding in many emerging markets.

Nigeria, very dependent on raw exports for foreign incomes, has seen the demand for the dollar increase, as the reserves were subject to pressure. However, with external reserves climbing $ 38.5 billion by June, the CBN had firepower to continue to provide liquidity and facilitate pressure on local currency.

“The Naira would have succeeded much worse without the appropriate interventions of the CBN, in particular in March and April, when the pressure FX rose,” said the optimal global report.

The company stressed that if oil prices play a major role in determining the Nairas trajectory, the CBN’s ability to maintain reserve buffers and to respond decisively is what has maintained the confidence of relatively stable investors.

What to expect in H2 2025

For the future, Optimum Global expects the Naira to remain linked to the beach between 1,500 N and 1,600 N, provided that the macroeconomic stability is adequately managed. While geopolitical risks and global oil dynamics remain uncertain, Nigeria’s ability to respond quickly through political measures could help limit the drawback.

However, the report also warns that the risks remain “without anchoring”, especially if the oil prices fall below sustainable levels or if the CBN is forced to reduce interventions due to the exhaustion of reserves. A prolonged geopolitical instability scenario or new shocks on the global financial markets could also derail fragile stability.

However, analysts remain carefully optimistic, noting that the CBN has shown greater agility to respond to currency pressure in recent months.

The report concludes that if the current coordination of the policy is maintained and that reserve levels remain above 35 billion dollars, the Naira will continue to negotiate in a controlled strip, even with moderate fluctuations in oil prices.

While the second half of the year begins, the spotlights remain both on the oil market and on the will of the CBN – and the capacity – to maintain a firm hold on the FX market.