Nigeria Economic Summit Group (NESG) urged the federal government to maintain the production of crude oil at 2.2 million barrels per day (BPD), stressing that this is crucial to ensure the viability of the 2025 budget and stabilize the country’s economy.
Dr. Tayo Adults, chief executive officer of Nesg, made this recommendation during the group’s press conference on his strategic vision of 2025 and his macroeconomic prospects of the private sector in Abuja. According to him, the achievement of this level of production is not only a income objective, but a necessary condition for foreign exchange stability and overall economic growth.
ADUROJU has stressed that the production of oil from Nigeria has fluctuated in recent years, varying between 1.1 million b / d, 2.2 million b / d and a peak of 2.8 million b / d. He stressed that in spite of these variations, the target of 2.2 million b / d of realistic remains, given the commitment of the current administration to increase production.
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“Stronging 2.2 million b / day, regardless of the price of crude oil, is necessary for the budget to be realistic,” said Adult. “The government has shown since its entry into office, gross production increased from 1.1 million b / d to 2.2 million b / d, and even 2.8 million b / d”.
His declaration aligns with the last report of the NESG, “the arch of the possible”, which describes specific and medium -term specific strategies for the economic transformation of Nigeria. The report details how a stable and robust crude oil production strategy can provide the financial foundation necessary for the critical implementation of policies.
The call of the NESG comes in the middle of the oil prices rally fueled by geopolitical tensions
NESG’s demand for an increase in oil production comes at a time when world crude prices are increasing, largely motivated by geopolitical conflicts and the displacement of American sanctions which have strengthened concerns concerning the disruption of supply.
At 949 GMT, Brent Brude was negotiated at $ 74.11 per barrel, extending a sequence of eight -day victories – the longest since May 2022. Likewise, the US West Texas (WTI) increased slightly to $ 69.97 per barrel. The two benchmarks won around 2.5% this week and are up 7% over several months recorded in early March.
Market analysts attribute this rally to the increase in American sanctions against Venezuela and Iran, two major oil -producing nations. The United States has imposed new restrictions on the Brutish Venezuelan exports, which makes it more difficult for the South American country to sell its oil on the world market. In addition, new sanctions against the Chinese raw imports of Iran have created an uncertainty, which tightens more oil supply.
June Goh, senior oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, explained that these developments have contributed to an apparent shortage of crude oil on the market.
“The potential loss of venezuelan raw exports to the market due to secondary prices and the possibility of similar restrictions on Iranian barrels has created an apparent waterproofing in raw supply,” she told Reuters.
The United States has imposed a 25% rate on potential venezuelan crude buyers, adding new restrictions to Venezuela’s ability to exchange. At the same time, the Venezuelan oil trade towards China, its largest buyer, blocked, as Reuters reported. India Reliance Industries, which exploits the largest refining complex in the world, should now stop imports from Venezuelan oil, according to sources familiar with the problem.
The combined effect of these sanctions has aroused concerns about global supply constraints, increasing higher oil prices. Although these increasing prices benefit from oil -producing nations like Nigeria, they also have challenges, in particular in terms of domestic inflation and fuel pricing.
Nigeria’s economic prospects under higher oil prices
For Nigeria, a sustained oil price rally could provide essential income, in particular because the profits of crude oil remain a key element in the country’s budgetary framework. In February 2025, President Bola Tinubu signed the credit bill of 54.99 Billions of Nairas 2025. This represents an increase of 99.96% compared to the budget of 27.5 Billions of Nairas of 2024 and was adopted by the National Assembly on February 13 after having undergone several revisions.
The government has set a benchmark price of $ 75 per barrel for crude oil in the 2025 budget. The Brent Brut currently negotiating at around $ 74.11 per barrel, the price is approaching the official projection of Nigeria. If the upward trend continues, Nigeria’s income targets could be achieved or even exceed.
However, Adults warned that achieving the production target of 2.2 million b / d would need political and security stability in oil producing regions. He underlined the recent political tensions in the state of rivers, a large oil producing zone, such as a potential risk factor that could disrupt production.
The NESG report projects stronger economic growth in 2025
The report on the macroeconomic perspectives of the NESG, “stabilization in transition: rethinking reform strategies for 2025 and beyond”, presents a positive economic forecast if Nigeria implements good policies. It provides that effective economic reforms could push Nigeria GDP growth to 5.5% in 2025, inflation going to 24.7% in optimal conditions.
Several factors should stimulate this growth, including improvements in power supply and the availability of fuel, which will reduce operational costs for businesses, in particular Nano, micro, small and medium (NMSMES) companies. The increase in exchange liquidity should also relieve manufacturers that rely on imported raw materials.
The report also highlights the agricultural sector reforms as a critical growth engine, solving the problems linked to financing, storage and logistics. In addition, it highlights the need for increased security in agricultural regions, which would cause an increase in food production and facilitate inflationary pressures.
Aduloju stressed that achieving these objectives will require strong coordination between tax and monetary authorities, urging the government to align its economic policies to ensure smooth implementation.
The uncertainty of the oil market and its implications for Nigeria
Although the increase in crude prices has an opportunity to increase income, it also introduces economic risks. The rise in oil prices tends to increase fuel costs and, in Nigeria, variations in interior pump prices have always been linked to global gross market fluctuations.
US gross gross inventory data published by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that American gross stocks fell by 3.3 million barrels last week, far exceeding analysts’ expectations of a drop of 956,000 barrels. This reduction in the American supply provided additional support for world crude prices.
However, long -term sustainability of current price levels remains uncertain, given the geopolitical tensions underway, commercial conflicts and global economic instability. IMC analysts maintain their forecasts from 2025 for Brent Brude at $ 76 per barrel, against an average of $ 80 a barrel in 2024, invoking uncertainties on the oil market.
