The Nigeria import bill plunged 1.76 Billion from Nairas in the first quarter of 2025, a sharp decrease of 54% compared to 3.81 Billions of Nairas recorded during the same period last year, according to new foreign trade data published by the National Statistics Bureau (NBS).
This also represents a drop of 47% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, when the country spent 3.3 Billions of Nairas in petrol imports.
The abrupt fall marks a significant rupture compared to the multi -year model of Nigeria of increasing dependence on refined foreign essence and underlines a growing change caused by the increase in the interior supply of the Dangote refinery, which has grown this year.
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Industry players say that the downward trend is largely the result of the aggressive pricing strategy of the Dangote refinery. Since the start of the local distribution, the refinery has offered petrol at prices that are much cheaper than imported fuel, drawing a strong interest from independent marketing specialists and the main marketing specialists on a national level. At the beginning of 2025, the price of the petrol pump dropped as low as N860 per liter in Lagos, against more than 1,000 N, marking the first great aid in detail in almost a year.
Dangote’s competitive prices have made its refinery a more attractive alternative to import. Marketing specialists are now obtaining directly in the local refinery in increasing number, encouraged by the drop in logistics costs and the reduction of exposure to foreign exchange. The refinery, currently at around 85% of its capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has become a central pillar of the Nigeria fuel supply chain.
NBS data confirm a structural gap. For the first time in years, the fuel import figures to the nigant Nigeria have reversed an upward trend. Between T1 2020 and T1 2024, the country’s fuel import bill has more than quadrupled, from 732 billion nairas to 3.81 Billions of Nairas. The 2025 T1 figure of 1.76 Billion de NT brings Nigeria back to import levels before 2022, indicating that inner refining is now starting to significantly move imported petrol.
However, there are growing fears that the gains made could be short -lived. Oil prices have shown signs of rebound in recent weeks, which is feared a new push that could increase the production costs of Dangote. Given that the refinery imports crude at international prices but sells fuel on the domestic market, any increase in world oil prices could force it to increase the prices of pumps – reduces its competitive advantage over imports.
A similar challenge had already emerged earlier this year when Dangote Industries briefly interrupted sales in Naira due to the inadequacy between the cost of the crude crude dollars and the revenues of local currency it received. Although the government was later intervened to resolve the gross dead end for the Nairas, the episode highlighted the vulnerability of the refinery with external price shocks.
Despite these concerns, the Dangote refinery continues to shape the Nigeria fuel food landscape. In addition to its impact on retail prices and import volumes, NBS data also revealed that petrol still represented 89.18 billion Nairas – or 44.51% – imports from Nigeria from ECOWAS countries in the first quarter of 2025.
Essence also represented 41.86% of Nigeria’s commercial entries in the wider West African region and contributed 11.63% of total imports on the African continent. Other oil -based products such as gas oil (23.15 billion nairas) and oil bitumen (20.58 billion Nairas) have also ranked imports, reflecting continuous dependence on foreign supply for a range of refined results.
The broader involvement of the report is that Nigeria enters a transition period in its downstream sector. After decades of complete dependence on imported refined products, the country begins to take advantage of the advantages of internal refining. The challenge, however, lies in maintaining this progress in the midst of the volatility of the global oil market and the pressures of currencies which continue to weigh on local refiners.
While the Dangote refinery continues to develop and other modular refineries arrive on the way, Nigeria could further reduce its fuel import charge. But for the moment, the perspectives remain delicately balanced between emerging self -sufficiency and the persistent risks posed by external economic forces.
