In the midst of arrow tensions in the Gulf which followed American air strikes on Iranian nuclear installations, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China on Sunday to use its lever effect with Tehran to prevent any attempt from Iran from closing the Hormuz Strait – a decision that has started to upset the world oil market and to further climb the crisis.
“I encourage the Chinese government in Beijing to call them on this subject because they depend strongly on the Hormuz Strait for their oil,” said Rubio during an appearance on Fox News.
His remarks follow the reports of the Iranian state media suggesting that the Iranian parliament supports a possible closure of the key sea road. However, the final decision is based on the country’s National Security Council.
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The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but strategic strangulation between Iran and Oman, is the most critical oil transit route in the world. In 2024, around 20 million barrels of crude oil per day – around 20% of world consumption – crossed the Strait, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The threat of Iran to block the passage has sent shock waves through the world markets. While many believe that the American navy, led by the fifth fleet based in Bahrain, would quickly act to neutralize any blockage, some experts warn that the consequences may not be as short or contained as supposed.
“They could disrupt, in our opinion, the expedition by Hormuz longer than the market thinks,” said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and former energy advisor to the White House. “It wouldn’t be a cake.”
Oil prices react quickly
World oil prices reacted immediately to the growing dead end. At the start of Sunday’s negotiation session – the first since the United States bombed three Iranian nuclear installations in Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan – the future increased.
The American crude has climbed $ 1.76, or 2.38%, at $ 75.60 per barrel.
Brent Crude, the global reference index, jumped $ 1.80, or 2.34%, at $ 78.81 per barrel after a previous point of more than 5.7% to $ 81.
Goldman Sachs and Rapidan Energy analysts warned that if Iran followed with a closure of the strait, oil prices could draw more than $ 100 per barrel, especially if the disturbance is extended.
China has a key card
Iran exports approximately 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, almost 80% of which go to China. This strong dependence on the Strait made Beijing a crucial player in the crisis of the course.
Rubio’s remarks highlight the growing American expectations that China, despite its alignment with Iran in broader geopolitical terms, would diplomatically intervene to preserve its own energy security and global market stability.
“It would be an economic suicide for Iran to close the Strait,” said Rubio. “It would harm the economy of other countries much worse than ours. It would be, I think, a massive escalation which deserves an answer, not only by us, but on the part of the others. ”
Risk of response and climbing Iran
The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, replied with challenge on Sunday, claiming that the Islamic Republic “reserves all the options to defend its sovereignty”. The press release occurred less than 24 hours after the United States has confirmed an aerial assault coordinated on three of the best nuclear sites in Iran – marking the most direct American military action against Iran in recent years.
While the Iranian Parliament supported the closure of the Strait in retaliation, the decision finally lies in the Supreme National Security Council of the country. This makes the current phase an intense uncertainty, where rhetoric could quickly translate into action.
The closure of the Hormuz Strait would not only have an impact on petroleum expeditions, but also those of liquefied natural gas (LNG), because Qatar, another large gulf exporter, is also based on the route.
The geopolitical tremor came at a time when the global energy markets were already nervous about supply cuts, a slow Chinese economy and increasing volatility of the Russian war in Ukraine. Now, with a direct military confrontation of Iran and a potential maritime blocking that is looming, traders are preparing for more instability.
Analysts believe that the situation of the situation will depend on several diplomatic levers: pressure from China, Iran’s strategic restraint and a wider international response led by Washington to keep the strait open.
