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Atlantic Basin gasoline market faces oversupply as demand weakens

The maritime charges of petrol and mixing components in the Atlantic basin experience rapid growth.

The brief period in May, when high margins of gasoline supported a transatlantic traction, finished, said Vortexa in its latest report.

This change is due to the increase in stocks and a gentle demand, because the new capacity for regional refining (like Dangote) largely meets the import requirements.

The fundamentals of the market worked together to lower European fuel margins to a three -month hollow on June 17, according to Argus Media.

Prolonged refinery breakdowns through the oil administration for defense 3 (Padd 3) districts, the East Coast of Canada, Europe and the South Atlantic led to a slow start in petrol loads / mixing components at the start of the year.

In addition, reversal and unforeseen events have extended these breakdowns in the Atlantic basin until May.

The Atlantic Basin, petrol and mixing of mixing components decreased from 7% from January to May 2025, compared to the same period from last year, due to breakdowns, showed Vortexa data.

Source: Vortexa

Petrol margins


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The margins of gasoline were previously supported by the contraction of the food.

However, the data from June 1 to 17 reveal a significant increase in the essence of the Atlantic basin and loads of mixing components.

This represents a 20% increase in the months to another and an increase of 18% in annual shift.

As Padd 1 transatlantic fuel arbitration closes, petrol stocks should increase in Europe (already up 10% in annual sliding in May) and Padd 1 (up 4% in annual sliding), Vortexa data showed.

The American refinery execution rates are solid in all PADDS, and despite certain padd 3 breakdowns, maritime petrol exports and padd 3 mixture components increased by 13% in annual shift in June.

The demand from West Africa for petrol and mixing components finds a significant drop.

Imports in May dropped by 20% in annual shift, and June is on the right track for a historic hollow, with only 261,000 barrels per day arriving between June 1 and 17, said Vortexa.

The unforeseen breakdown of the RFCC at the Dangote refinery in T2 is largely responsible for the drop in imports.

Require


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According to the agency, the main reason for the weakening of petrol demand could be the growing use of electric vehicles (electric vehicles) in the largest Atlantic pool.

Although the global movement of oil by EVS is expected to reach 2.5 million barrels per day by 2025, other factors, such as improving energy efficiency in petrol vehicles, probably have a greater impact on the drop in engine fuel demand in the United States, according to Pamela Munger, responsible for market analysis, in Europe at Vortexa.

Source: Vortexa

In the United States, new vehicles have increased 35% in the fuel economy since 2004, according to Marketwatch.

This has led to a significant reduction in petrol consumption.

The trend comes despite an increase of 1.5% of one year on the other of the Miles of vehicles traveled in April 2025, and a growing overall trend since the hollows, currently at only 11% below the early peak, said Munger in the report.

European demand


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Munger said:

Meanwhile, European demand, a luminous point for the overhang of Ara essence in the previous summers, seems lukewarm.

Sales of electric vehicles are increasing in Germany, the largest automotive market in Europe, and now constitutes an increasing part of new car registrations.

“For the moment, the best European refineries can do is to take advantage of the relatively cheap octane mixture components and have ready -made stocks for any supply disturbance which could trigger the demand for imports to the main application centers,” noted Munger.

The national ocean and atmospheric administration predicts 60% of a season of the Atlantic Hurricane season above 2025.

In addition, the negotiations underway between Dangote and the national government can lead to short and sporadic periods of the return importation request, Monger said.

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