Sovecon, a leading agricultural council, estimates that Russia will export 2.0 million tonnes of wheat in April.
This figure represents a significant decrease compared to the 5.0 million metric tonnes exported in April of the previous year and is also particularly lower than the five -year average for April exports, which amounts to 3.5 million metric tonnes.
Russia’s wheat export rates have remained lower than average for four consecutive months.
This slowdown can be awarded to a drop in the profitability and competitiveness of Russian wheat on the world market.
Several factors could contribute to this situation, including increased competition from other exporting countries of wheat, changes in global demand and exchange rate fluctuations.
Lower export rates may have implications for the Russian economy, as well as for world wheat prices and food security.
Exceptional sales
Copy the link to the section
The drop in Russian wheat sales persists, as evidenced by the drop in current sales.
This figure is currently 1.1 million metric tonnes, marking a significant decrease compared to the 1.3 million metric tonnes recorded in the previous month.
This downward trend suggests a softening of Russian wheat demand on the world market.
Several factors could contribute to this drop, including increased competition from other exporting countries of wheat, fluctuations in world wheat prices and possibly geopolitical considerations.
“The competitiveness of Russian wheat has decreased,” said Sovecon.
Variable prices
Copy the link to the section
Last week, the global wheat market experienced variable prices depending on origin and protein content.
Russian wheat, with a 12.5%protein content, was offered at a price range of $ 250 to $ 252 per metric tonne on a free on -board basis (FOB).
This means that the seller’s responsibility ends when the goods are loaded on the ship, and the buyer assumes all costs and risks from this moment.
Meanwhile, French wheat with a similar protein content was cited at a slightly lower price of $ 244 per metric ton. This price difference could be awarded to factors such as transport costs, quality perceptions and market demand.
In addition, wheat in the ports of Constanța, Varna and Burgas (CVB) was offered at $ 248 per metric ton.
These ports are located on the coast of the Black Sea and serve as important centers for cereal exports from Eastern Europe.
The price of wheat in these ports was influenced by factors such as local supply and demand, competition from other origins and logistical considerations.
Turn to other suppliers
Copy the link to the section
“The main Russian wheat buyers are probably turning to other suppliers,” said the council.
The Buyer of the Algerian State OAIC recently concluded a purchase of 570,000 to 600,000 tonnes of wheat. Wheat from various origins was bought at a price of $ 267.5 per metric tonne on a C&F basis.
Based on the analysis and estimates of Sovecon, it is believed that Russian wheat was at the cost of a bonus of $ 2 to $ 3 per metric tonne compared to the OAIC purchase price.
This price difference suggests that wheat bought by Algeria is likely to come from suppliers in Romania, Bulgaria and Ukraine, where prices were more competitive and aligned on the conditions of purchase of the OAIC.
Export operations are not very profitable due to relatively high prices. The exporter margins have been negative since the end of last year; They were $ 5 to 10 / MT last fall.
The April estimate of the USDA for Russian wheat exports during the 2024-25 season was 44.0 million metric tonnes, while the current Sovecon estimate is 40.7 million metric tonnes.
Andrey Sizov, Managing Director of Sovecon, said:
The limited offer of Russian wheat at current price levels can support the global market.
