German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned the United States against the underestimation of the preparation of the European Union to retaliate if the United States implanted 30% tariffs on EU property, which could have a strong impact on the German economy of Germany. Speaking on July 13, 2025, Merz underlined the need for EU unity and open communication with the American president Donald Trump To find a quick solution.
He noted that while the EU refers to immediate countermeasures, it is ready to respond if necessary, aligning France’s position on potential reprisals. Merz stressed that the previous threats of Trump against other countries often served as negotiation tactics, which suggests that an agreement could still be concluded before the deadline of August 1, 2025.
Germany, as the greater EU economy, is based Stop exporting exports, in particular to the United States, with 157 billion euros in goods exported in 2024. An American price of 30% could disrupt key sectors such as the automobile (for example, Volkswagen, BMW), machines and chemicals, leading to a reduction in commercial volumes, loss of use and economic slowdown. Other EU nations with significant American trade, such as France and Italy, would also be faced with economic tension.
The EU exported 472 billion euros in goods in the United States in 2024, and prices could disrupt supply chains, increase costs and mitigate growth through the block. The Merz alert signals the EU’s desire to impose counter-taar, potentially targeting American products such as agricultural products, technology or energy exports (for example, liquefied natural gas). In 2018, the EU responded to American steel prices with 3 billion dollars of American products, such as Bourbon and motorcycles.
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A similar or larger response could degenerate tensions into a full -fledged trade war. A trade war would harm the two economies, the United States being faced at higher consumer prices and the EU struggling with export reductions, potentially aggravating global economic instability in the midst of existing inflationary pressures.
Merz’s comments suggest that the EU uses the threat of reprisals as a lever effect to negotiate an agreement before the deadline of August 1, 2025. By highlighting the previous use of tariff threats by Trump as negotiation tactics, Merz indicates opening to dialogue, which could lead to reduced exemptions or prices if the EU offers concessions, commercial policy adjustments.
A tariff dispute of the United States could push the EU to strengthen trade links with other partners, such as China or Anase, to compensate for losses. However, this is likely to constitute more transatlantic relations and weaken the Western economic alliance at a time of geopolitical challenges, including competition with the continuous influence of China and Russia. The dispute could also disrupt global supply chains, especially in industries such as automotive and technology, where American and European companies are deeply integrated.
The Trump administration appears focused on protectionist policies aimed at stimulating national manufacturing and reducing trade deficits. The prices offered by Trump on 30% on EU products align with its larger program, which includes 60% of prices on Chinese imports. This approach prioritizes American interests but risks alienating the allies. The EU, led by figures like Merz and the French president Emmanuel MacronConsider prices as a threat to its economic model and its world trade principles.
The unified EU position, as Merz pointed out, aims to counter American pressure but reflects internal concerns about maintaining competitiveness and cohesion. While Merz calls for EU unity, Member States have variable priorities. Heavy export nations like Germany and the Netherlands are more vulnerable to American prices, putting pressure on a strong response, while smaller or less dependent states may prefer de-escalation to avoid economic benefits.
The price threat amplifies political divisions within the EU. Populist and protectionist parties in countries like Italy or Hungary can sympathize with Trump’s approach, complicating the EU’s ability to present a united front. The dispute exacerbates a wider gap between the defenders of the protectionist and free trade. The United States moved to protectionism contrasts with EU’s commitment to multilateral trade agreements, potentially weakening institutions such as the World Trade Organization.
Emerging savings can exploit this gap, with countries like China or India positioning itself as alternative trade partners, further reshaping global economic alliances. Merz’s warning highlights the high challenges of a potential tariff litigation of the United States, with significant economic and geopolitical implications. The gap reflects different American economic and EU priorities, EU’s internal challenges and a broader world change towards protectionism.
Although negotiation can avoid climbing, non-compliance with an agreement by August 1, 2025, risks a harmful trade war, with training effects in the world markets. The EU’s ability to maintain unity and to take advantage of its collective economic weight will be essential to shape the result.
