SAsian Outheast has expressed an increased level of confidence in the United States-and said more that they would line up with the United States on China if it was forced to choose, a reverse of the aggregated results from last year-according to the latest Southeast Asia survey report by ISEAS-YUSOF Ishak Institute, a Singapore-based reflection group, published Thursday.
However, it was before President Donald Trump announced a list of new prices yesterday that hit the region. Experts warn that the results could be different if they were questioned today.
Find out more: “ Day of inflation rather than the day of liberation ”: how the world reacts to Trump’s last rates
The investigation took place between January 3 and February 15, overlapping with the inauguration of Trump on January 20. 2,023 respondents in 11 countries in Southeast Asia – the 10 member states of Asean and Timor -Leste – asked “how confident you are [the U.S./China] “Will do the right thing” for world peace, security, prosperity and governance? “”
In all Anase countries, the levels of trust in the United States increased from 42.4% last year to 47.2% this year, and the levels of distrust increased from 37.6% to 33.0%. While levels of confidence in the United States have decreased in the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, confidence in the United States nevertheless prevailed over mistrust of the United States in seven of the 10 countries: Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia were the exceptions – in the three countries, distrust of the United States has exceeded confidence. Last year, confidence in the United States prevailed over the mistrust in just five of the 10 countries: Cambody, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
At the same time, the confidence of countries in China increased by 11.8 percentage points – the highest increase in the levels of confidence of any major power, from 24.8% to 36.6% this year. However, a little more than half of the ASEAN-10 respondents expressed more distrust than trust in China. Confidence in China has exceeded mistrust in just four of the 10 countries – Brunei, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand.
The annual survey includes five categories of respondents: the academic world, reflection groups or researchers; Private sector representatives; civil society, non -governmental organizations or media representatives; government officials; and staff of regional or international organizations. An equal weighting of 10% was given to each of the 10 ASEAN member states on the grounds that they each have their say in the decisions of the association. Timor-Leste, who awaits official admission to Anase, was also invited to participate in the investigation for the first time, although it was not included in the aggregated scores of the Anase.
The respondents were questioned about confidence on a scale of five points of “no confidence”, “little confidence”, “no comment”, “confident” and “very confident”. Mistrust was calculated as the sum of “no confidence” and “little confidence”, while confidence included “confident” and “very confident”.
If the Anase was forced to align with the United States or China, Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam, or 52.3% of all ASEAN-10 respondents, favored the United States last year, 50.5% of the United States ASEAN-10 this year compared to the last.
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The “volatility of preferences” between China and the United States suggests that “Southeast Asia is a compression arena between Washington and Beijing despite the desires” not to choose “in the region”, Ja Ian Chong, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore and non-resident with Carnegie China, Tells Time.
Chong says that Biden administration has strengthened links in Asia, which could have contributed to the position of the United States when the countries were preparing for a second Trump administration. “There was an assumption that a second Trump administration would be much like the first, which was not too important a department of traditional foreign and economic policy in the United States,” said Chong, adding that several Southeast Asian economies were stimulated by the relocation of businesses far from China due to the trade war during the first Trump administration.
The Swing of China in the United States this year is also due to the fact that the countries put actions in the Trump administration introducing the “restraint” on China, Sharon Seah, principal scholarship holder and coordinator at the ASEAN Ishak Studies Center of the Ishak Institute, said Time. Seah was one of the researchers behind the report.
The concerns about China potentially use its economic and military power to threaten the interests and sovereignty of the countries were the main reason for the distrust of China. This was reflected in relatively higher mistrust towards China in Vietnam and the Philippines, a country which had direct altercations with China on the disputed sea of southern China – which was presented as the main geopolitical concern of the region, going beyond the War of Israel in Gaza, which led last year.
But experts warn that results may not reflect recent changes in American foreign policy.
Investigations tend to have a “conservation time”, Mark S. Cogan, associate professor of peace and conflicts at the Japanese university of Kansai Gaidai, tells the time. When the investigation took place, “Trump’s foreign policy had not taken root,” said Cogan. Now, “the United States foreign policy is in a very, very large state of flow”.
Trump’s freeze on foreign aid started in the middle of the survey for the investigation, but many of its effects in Southeast Asia were only felt the earthquake in Myanmar and Thailand on March 28, Seah said. Now, “the real impact in the field” has become clear.
Find out more: How the Myanmar junta – and the current civil war – complicates the resumption of the earthquake of the country
Cogan also underlined the evisation of demining programs in Vietnam and Cambodia which were essential to strengthen confidence between these countries and the United States – the confidence that says that Cogan was eroded. “The restoration of this relationship and the work to strengthen confidence will take very, a very long time.”
The countries of Southeast Asia were among the “reciprocal” rates the hardest affected by Trump, announced on April 2. Cambodia faces a 49%levy, in Laos 48%, in Vietnam 46%, in Myanmar 44%and Thailand, Indonesia, Brunei and Malaysia, all statements of more than 20%.
Thailand and Vietnam both, during the first and second Trump administrations, tried to look at their relations with the United States, but, says Cogan, while China has intensified its investments in Southeast Asia and the United States apply punitive commercial measures, more countries could wonder: “What kind of incentive is there, but to look for more insurance China?
“On the one hand, there is an opportunity, certainly for the United States to get involved,” said Cogan, but at the same time “its foreign policy really says that it withdraws”.
Seah, however, warns that it could be too early to say what impact Trump’s last rates will have because several countries engage in negotiations with the United States
China under the direction of President Xi Jinping is widely considered more predictable than the United States under Trump, Seah says time. “Southeast Asia knows the red lines of China and understands how the Chinese governance system works.” The concerns that the United States is “distracted” by its internal policy and less able to engage with the global problems questioned as the highest reason for distrust for power.
All the major powers – the United States, China, Japan, the European Union and India – have increased the confidence of Southeast Asia this year. Among these, Japan remains the most reliable and its level of confidence increased from 58.9% to 66.8%. The EU exceeded the United States for the second more reliable, while the United States, China and India followed in that order.
“Japan has been working with Anase for over 50 years,” Seah told Time. Japan “gradually accumulated its credibility” after the Second World War, and “over time, a constant commitment with the region in trade, investments, [and] The exchanges of people to people have borne fruit. »»
Cogan suggested that the United States could learn from the coherent and stable approach to Japan.
“Sometimes the influence is not found in the cannon of a pistol,” he says. “It is found through the construction of confidence, social cohesion, this kind of bond, this reputation … which forms for decades and decades.”
