The probability of Federal reserve The drop in interest rates in September 2025 recently increased, with estimates based on CME Group Data indicating a probability of more than 71%. This increase in dimensions aligns with the feeling of the market reflected on platforms such as Polymarketwhere traders have shown strong confidence in a drop in potential rate, probabilities reaching up to 85% according to some messages on X. The anticipation of a drop in rate is motivated by factors such as the cooling of inflation and the expectations of more loose monetary policy, which could stimulate economic activity.
However, the Fed’s decision remains dependent on data, and uncertainties such as the impacts of potential prices within the framework of President Trump’s policies could influence the result. A rate drop, if it is implemented, is generally considered optimistic for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, as lower borrowing costs often encourage investment in speculative markets.
Declaration by Jerome Powell on cryptographic activities
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President of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said American banks are free to engage in crypto activities, signaling a permissive position towards their involvement in the cryptocurrency sector. This follows previous comments in February 2025, where Powell indicated that the Fed would not obtain banks to serve legal cryptographic customers, and is based on a declaration of December 2024 clarifying that the Fed does not intend to hold Bitcoin itself.
This green light allows banks to offer services like Spot Crypto ETF And potentially other products related to crypto, marking an important step towards the integration of digital assets in the traditional bank. The cryptography market has responded positively to this news, with increased optimism among investors, because it could improve liquidity and general public adoption. However, the challenges persist, such as the difficulties of companies related to cryptography in access to banking services and regulatory obstacles for institutions such as Custodia Bank.
Powell’s pro-Crypto position and the increase in the opportunities for a drop in September rate could create a synergistic effect for cryptocurrency markets. A rate drop would increase liquidity, which makes it cheaper for investors and institutions to borrow and invest in risky assets such as Bitcoin and Altcoins. Simultaneously, allowing banks to carry out cryptographic activities could facilitate greater institutional participation, for example through childcare or offers, which stimulates capital entries.
The articles on X highlight this combined optimism, noting the friendly comments of Powell alongside the expectations to reduce rates as a “calm storm” building for the market. However, risks remain, in particular the potential inflation of prices and regulatory uncertainties which could temperate upward perspectives. Investors should conduct their own research, because market reactions to rate drops and the integration of cryptographic banks can be volatile and unpredictable.
A reduced rate reduction in borrowing costs, encouraging investments in risky assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies and other speculative investments. This could increase prices on equity and crypto markets while investors are looking for higher yields. Cryptocurrencies, in particular Bitcoin, often benefit from more cowardly monetary policy, as we see in historical cycles where low rates are correlated with bullish cryptographic markets. The drop in interest rates could stimulate economic activity by reducing the cost of loans to businesses and consumers, potentially increase spending and investment.
However, this could also rekindle inflationary pressures, especially if they are combined with external factors such as prices, which could complicate Fed’s efforts to maintain prices. While price markets are currently high probability (more than 71% per CME group data) of a rate drop, any difference compared to expectations (for example, no reduction or a smaller drop) could lead to significant volatility of stocks, bonds and crypto.
A drop in American rate could weaken the dollar, making assets denominated in dollars such as Bitcoin more attractive for international investors. This could further supply the growth of the cryptography market. Emerging markets can be confronted with challenges, as lower American rates could cause capital outings of these regions, affecting their currencies and their savings. Allowing banks to engage in Crypto activities, such as the supply of childcare services, FNB Crypto or other financial products, could provide significant institutional capital on the cryptography market. This would improve liquidity and potentially stabilize prices over time.
Large banks entering cryptographic space could further legitimize digital assets, attracting conservative investors who previously avoided the sector due to regulatory uncertainty. Powell’s declaration could relieve the long -standing challenges of cryptographic companies, such as the difficulty in obtaining banking services. Better access to traditional banking services could rationalize operations for exchanges, guards and other cryptographic entities. However, cases like Guardian The ongoing regulatory struggles suggest that implementation can face obstacles, because regulatory clarity is still evolving.
Powell’s permissive position has already stimulated the feeling of the cryptography market, as we can see in positive reactions on X and the rise in prices after its June 24, 2025, comments. This could lead to short-term price increases for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. Long -term and broader banking participation could reduce the volatility of cryptography by integrating it into traditional finance, although speculative bubbles remain a risk.
While Powell’s comments point out the opening, banks will always have to navigate in complex regulations, such as the anti-money laundering requirements (AML) and your client’s requirements (KYC), to engage in safe cryptographic activities. Clarification of the Fed according to which it will not hold Bitcoin itself limits the direct participation of the Central Bank, potentially capping the extent of short-term institutional integration. A rate drop and increased participation in crypto banks could create a powerful bullish catalyst for digital assets. Lower rates would provide cheaper capital, while banks participate would open new investment channels, which could cause significant capital entries.
The combination of bulk monetary policy and the enthusiasm of the cryptographic market could lead to speculative excesses, increasing the risk of asset bubbles. Investors must remain cautious, as rapid price increases often precede corrections. External factors, such as the inflation of the prices proposed within the framework of President Trump’s policies, could complicate the Fed strategy and affect traditional and cryptographic markets.
Banks offering crypto services could fill traditional finances and decentralized finances (DEFI), promoting innovation in financial products, but also raising concerns about systemic risks if the volatility of the cryptographic market is affected on banks. This integration could accelerate the adoption of blockchain technology in traditional finance, the potential transformation of payment systems, childcare solutions, etc.
Although the prospects seem positive, regulatory uncertainty and macroeconomic risks (for example, inflation, geopolitical tensions) could temper the advantages. Investors and institutions should carry out in -depth research and risk assessments before diving on the cryptographic markets. The Fed data approach means that all unexpected economic indicators could change the probability of a drop in rates, which has an impact on market expectations.
The increase in the chances of a drop in rate in September 2025 and the cryptographic position of Powell could considerably stimulate the cryptocurrency sector by increasing liquidity, by encouraging institutional participation and improving the feeling of the market. However, risks such as inflation, regulatory obstacles and market volatility remain.
