US-China Trade Talks Show Progress, But Uncertainty Persists Over Trump’s 10% Tariff Baseline

The United States and China seem to get closer to the relaxation of trade tensions after two days of high-level talks in Geneva, the two parties agreeing to establish a new “commercial consultation mechanism” aimed at resolving differences through direct dialogue.

The discussions, led by the Chinese Deputy Minister, the Lifegs trade representative and the American representative Jamieson Greer, were described as “constructive” by the two delegations – a change marked compared to the climbing rhetoric which has dominated the last months.

According to Xinhua’s state news agency, managed by the state of China, the Deputy Prime Minister, He Lifeng, said that the two countries had “taken” [an] Important step to resolve the differences by equal dialogue and consultation ”and that they plan to issue a joint declaration describing their commitments. He added that “other consultations on questions of mutual concern” will be carried out in the future, reporting a continuous commitment beyond the meetings of Geneva.

The CCTV state diffuser echoes the feeling, characterizing discussions as “candid, in -depth and constructive” and indicating that “substantial progress” had been made.

Vice-Prime Minister, he also underlined the preparation of China to work with the United States, declaring: “We are ready to manage the differences, to extend the cooperation areas and to make the pie of cooperation larger.” However, it simultaneously issued a severe warning that if the United States continued to degenerate trade tensions, China “will not be afraid” and is ready to “fight until the end”, according to Reuters.

On the American side, the representative of trade Jamieson Greer, who participated in the talks alongside the secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent and two Chinese vice-militas, described the result as an “agreement that we have concluded with our Chinese partners”. He underlined the pace and tone of talks, saying: “It is important to understand how speed we have agreed, which reflects that the differences were perhaps not as big as perhaps the thought”, according to a white house statement.

Despite the diplomatic tone and the progress reported, a major question remains unresolved: how the negotiations address the reference rate of 10% of the Trump administration on all imported goods – a policy that currently affects China but almost all the trade partners of the United States.

Commerce secretary, Howard Lungick, confirmed on Sunday that the 10% price was not a temporary measure.

“We expect a reference rate of 10% or in place in the foreseeable future,” he told Dana Bash de CNN on the state of the Union, strengthening the comments made earlier by President Donald Trump that the price would serve as the basis for all trade agreements in the future.

President Trump has repeatedly said that the 10% rate rate is now the prosecution and could be “much higher” for countries with significant commercial surpluses with the United States. “They had a good deal,” said Trump about the United Kingdom, who recently concluded a trade agreement with Washington. However, he also pointed out that “some will be much higher because they have massive commercial surpluses”.

Lutnick defended politics, insisting that it would not be American consumers who support the financial burden.

“Companies, their work is to try to sell to the American consumer, and the products produced at the national level will not have this price, so foreigners will finally compete,” he said.

But this position was challenged by economic data and market reactions. Since the announcement of Trump’s April 2 tariff, consumer confidence has dropped and the prices of several household items have already started to increase, suggesting that businesses have increased increased costs to customers.

This reality has created a complicated backdrop for American-Chinese commercial discussions. Although Geneva meetings suggest that the two parties are ready to reduce prices and defuse tensions, it is not clear if the Trump administration will be willing to adjust its basic policy by 10%, especially since it has been publicly positioned as a non -negotiable standard.

In addition, other countries affected by pricing policy – including American allies such as Canada, Japan and South Korea – remain in uncertainty, without any clear calendar at the moment or if, exemptions or changes will be taken into account.

While the United States and China are preparing to publish a joint declaration and to move on to a new consultation phase, the outcome of these talks could either mark the start of a new cooperative era, or global trade tensions, especially if the Trump administration tariff floor turns out to be too high for the partners to accept.

Until new clarifications are provided on how the 10% price will be applied to China and other countries, optimism concerning the breakthrough of Geneva will probably remain temperate by persistent uncertainty.