Tomas economic experts, in a recent article on the X platform, have highlighted a critical market signal that could generate bitcoin and other much higher risk assets this summer.
According to the expert, the sharp drop in the US dollar index seen in the first quarter historically triggers strong gatherings in assets like Bitcoin, generally with a three -month shift.
He predicts that if this model is valid, Bitcoin could reach the range of $ 150,000 to $ 200,000 in the coming months.
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Weakened dollar index: its correlation with the BTC explained
US dollar index analyzed
At the start of this year, the US dollar index was $ 108.512. In the first quarter of this year, the index slipped by no less than 3.93%. The previous month, it decreased by more than 4.36%. Currently, the index is at $ 100.424.
This shows that the US dollar has weakened a lot in recent months, especially in the first quarter of 2025.
Tomas notes that historically, a lower dollar generally leads to higher prices for risk assets such as Bitcoin and Actions, but with a delay (often about three months).
On May 8, with a single day increase of 6.46%, the Bitcoin market once again broken the crucial brand of $ 100,000.
Bitcoin price analysis: in short
At the start of this month, the BTC price was $ 94,147.61. So far this month, the BTC market has jumped almost 10.2%. Even if, at the beginning of this month, the market experienced severe volatility (an increase of around 2.84% between May 1 and 2 and a drop of 2.68% between May 3 and 4), since May 5, it has increased by at least 10.23%.
In the past seven days only, the price of Bitcoin has experienced an impressive increase of 7.8%.
Bitcoin price prediction: what the economist says
Tomas states that the recent rise in Bitcoin could be the early sign of the BTC-Dollar index correlation model.
The expert provides that if the usual opposite relationship between Bitcoin and the US dollar index is maintained, the BTC price could reach the range of $ 150,000 to $ 200,000 by this summer.
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Correlation of the US dollar index with American actions and gold: what you need to know
Tomas notes that the same scheme could also increase American stock indices, although the link is less precise than with Bitcoin.
In the first quarter of 2025, the S&P 500 index recorded a significant drop of 4.96%. During the previous month, the market recorded a minor drop of 0.54%. Since the start of this month, it has experienced a small increase of 0.96%.
Likewise, in April, the NASDAQ 100 index reported an increase of 1.92%. So far this month, the index jumped from 0.95% to $ 20,062.45.
Meanwhile, the expert points out that gold often synchronizes with the dollar, not in the opposite direction.
2025 was a fantastic year for gold. In T1 2025, the price of gold experienced enviable growth no less than 19.16%. The previous month, the price declared an increase of at least 5.25%. So far this month, the market has shown minimum growth of 1.25%.
The expert warns that since the dollar already weakened, gold has probably increased and could fall if the dollar is reinforced again.
Faq
A lower dollar historically leads to higher bitcoin prices about three months later, as investors are looking for alternative assets.
A lower dollar tends to lift stocks, but gold often synchronizes with the dollar, so that its earnings can already be assessed.
