Bitcoin (BTC) traders expect a local bottom to form in mid-November, as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is expected to cross below the 200-day SMA near $100,000, a trend that has often marked local lows.
Additionally, some analysts overlay lunar phases on price charts, noting that first quarter moons often precede rallies that extend into full or third moons. These contrasting strategies, classic technical analysis and the use of lunar phase timing, are attracting attention as Bitcoin tests critical supports.
Death Cross and Key Support Levels Point to November Low
The expected intersection of Bitcoin’s 50- and 200-day SMAs, often referred to as the death cross, could occur in mid-November, near $100,000. Historically, this event signals local lows and generally does not mark long-term slowdowns.
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According to Binance’s analysis, the average price change one month after a deadly crossover is just -3.2%, calling into question the idea that this reliably triggers lasting bear markets.
Analyst Colin suggests that the lowest reasonable level for Bitcoin in this bull market cycle is around $98,000, a region with several support alignments. This corresponds to the 50-week SMA, which has provided support since the first quarter of 2023.
Binance data from October 2025 indicates that the 50-week SMA is around $101,700, a key level during the ongoing bull market.
Since the first quarter of 2023, Bitcoin has not closed a weekly candle below the 50-week SMA, a point highlighted by analyst Ted Pillows in his October article. This level, now around $102,800, is the threshold Bitcoin must maintain to maintain the uptrend.
A weekly close below this support level could indicate a potential slowdown in market structure.
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The formation of a rising wedge could lead to a 15-35% decline
Despite long-term positive signals, Bitcoin’s weekly chart now displays a rising wedge, a downtrend characterized by converging trendlines that indicate declining momentum.
In previous cycles, this pattern has resulted in declines ranging from 15% to 35%, as seen in 2018 and 2021. The trend suggests lower buying pressure at higher and higher prices within an increasingly narrow range.
Nevertheless, the overall structure of the bull market remains unchanged. Bitcoin continues to record higher lows and higher highs in an ascending channel since 2022.
Historically, bounces from the lower range of the channel have bounced anywhere from 60% to 170%. Some analysts maintain a price target of $170,000 or higher, attributing this strong uptrend and the lack of overbought cycle signals traditionally seen at macroeconomic tops.
The current sideways trading between $105,000 and $110,000 is considered a consolidation rather than a market collapse.
Colin’s analysis suggests that the market is testing holders’ patience, particularly for altcoin investors, as the cycle extends beyond the standard Q4 peak. He notes that Bitcoin held up against precedent during the last bear market when its low of $15,000 fell below the previous cycle’s high of $20,000, a first for the digital asset.
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Lunar Cycle Observations Add to Bullish Case
Some traders also match Bitcoin price patterns with lunar phases. Analyst LP_NXT shared analysis illustrating that when Bitcoin is mapped according to lunar cycles, a clear rhythm emerges for 2025.
First quarter moons, including the recent October 29 event, often correspond to the start of ascending movements extending into full moon or third quarter periods.
The first quarter moon of October 29, 2025 could thus align with an upward trend according to this theory. This timing matches the technical view that mid-November could mark the local low.
Proponents attribute these cycles to recurring market psychology rather than superstitious reasoning. Although lunar phase analysis lacks the rigor of established technical tools, its recurrence among traders highlights the diversity of strategies used in crypto markets.
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The alignment of lunar timing, established support levels, and moving average crossovers make November 2025 a focal point for traders.
Bullish structure holds as market consolidates
Current market conditions balance short-term bearish technicals and long-term bullish momentum. Colin’s analysis highlights the importance of patience, suggesting market turmoil could arise for those looking for a traditional Q4 peak.
He recommends holding Bitcoin until a new all-time high is reached, then possibly switching to altcoins using Bitcoin-denominated gains a few weeks later.
The so-called death cross, although generally considered negative, acts more as a late confirmation in Bitcoin’s story.
At the same time, Ledger’s educational materials point out that this often signals capitulation (exhausted sales and reversal) rather than predicting major moves in advance.
By the end of October 2025, Bitcoin’s ability to stay above the 50-week SMA will determine the trajectory of the bull market.
The mid-November window, suggested by both moving average analysis and lunar timing, provides traders with a time frame for potential accumulation. Whether traditional or unconventional methods prove correct, November 2025 is shaping up to be a decisive period for Bitcoin price action.
