The issues of the German elections could not be higher.
The greatest EU economy has been in recession for two years of racing, a dark perspective that seems ready to worsen if Donald Trump is good at his threat to hit Europe with prices.
The “America First” program of the new Occupant of the White House has raised more questions about the security posture of Germany at any time since the end of the Cold War.
And a wave of terrorist attacks committed by migrants has undermined public confidence in the immigration system, giving the opening of the alternative alternative to Germany (AFD). The German far right now seems ready to display its best election in the post-war period, with AFD waiting in the wings and ready to jump on the perceived failures of the next government.
Find out more: Exclusive: Alice Weidel on the rise of her AFD party on the far right, the support of Elon Musk and the German elections
The last surveys before the vote suggest that Friedrich Merz, chief of the Christian Democrats in the center-right (CDU), will succeed the Chancellor of Center-Gauche Olaf Scholz. He clearly faces important challenges – some outside of his control and some self -inflicted.
First eliminate the problems of the immediate control of Merz. The country’s economic model is in doubt, the manufacture shaken at the end of inexpensive energy imports from Russia and the growing competitiveness of China on the world market. These misfortunes will only deepen if the American president will follow his pricing threats. Car manufacturers, the backbone of the economy, should be particularly affected because Germany exports more cars in the United States than any other country.
Second, the prospect of an American withdrawal of European security has stressed the need for Germany to do more, more quickly, in defense than they have done for 30 years. Three days after the Russian Invasion on a large scale of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Scholz declared a Zeitenende—POINT RETURN – Proborating a new era of German rearmament. But investment in the German army has been too slow in the three years since. Combat preparation has actually dropped due to the transfer of equipment to Ukraine.
While the United States is turning more and more inward, Germany will have to play a central role in the defense of Europe. This will not only require money but will make difficult political decisions, such as the possible reintroduction of a form of conscription. It is a challenge that Merz seems to grasp. On Friday, he said that Europe should “prepare for the possibility” that the United States does not defend its European allies.
Finally, there is a migration, which polls show is among the main problems for voters. The public is exhausted after a series of deadly stabs and car strokes committed by refugees and asylum seekers, more recently in Munich only 10 days before the vote. A feeling that the system is broken led to the increase in favor of AFD, which openly embraces “remigration”, a term for mass deportations that come from marginal white nationalists. Some of the far -right sisters of AFD, such as the National Rally of Marine Le Pen in France, avoid the German party as too extreme because of its commitment to remigration.
But other problems have been caused by Merz’s own actions. His reckless decision to accept AFD’s support to adopt a resolution – a first for post -war Germany – made him seem reckless and a player.
The decision cost Merz Trust with the potential coalition partners on the center on the left when rapid negotiations to form a strong government are necessary, said Nils Schmid, deputy for social democrats, a possible partner For the CDU.
The Gambit de Merz, although brought back, was recognition that the reconstruction of public confidence concerning migration policy will be the key to the success of the next government. The resolution, adopted with AFD votes, promised the performative tenacity, which Merz has since admitted would be inapplicable. But the application of existing rules would be sufficient. Several recent attacks have been committed by migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected and were therefore responsible for the expulsion.
The head of the CDU also remains publicly attached to the so-called “debt braking”, a constitutional ban on deficit in most cases. He was brought by the predecessor of Merz, the predecessor Angela Merkel to call on a prudent electorate, but he seems painfully inadequate in the face of the urgent need of Germany to invest in infrastructure and the defense.
Fortunately for Merz, the unprecedented security situation can be used as political coverage to abandon the braking of the debt, at least to invest in the defense. Voters grant him the room for maneuver to play with deficit rules. Most will understand that politics as usual is not enough to meet the important challenges of the country.
All the main parties, including the CDU, have excluded to work with AFD, so it will certainly be excluded from the government. But if the next government vacillates, an autonomous AFD would say that the Germans, having failed by all the major parties, should offer them a chance. Across Europe, from France to Austria, the sanitary cordon The prevention of cooperation with the extreme right is broken. For the moment, it is in Germany, but it can become impossible to maintain at the time of the next elections.
It is therefore the challenges that a chancellor Merz would be confronted: to succeed with one of the most difficult hands treated with a chancellor entering for 30 years or risks remembering as the leader who paved the way to the first German government of extreme right since 1945.
