Why Microsoft Stock Is Down? MSFT Share Tests 15-Month Low but 2025 Price Predictions Remain Bullish ⋅ Crypto World Echo

As of April1, 2025, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) stock has hit a 15-month low, sliding to $375.39.Yet, despite this stumble, Wall Street analysts remain optimistic, with 2025price predictions still painting a bullish picture. So, what’s draggingMicrosoft stock down today, and why are experts betting on a rebound?

Let’s breakit down in plain terms: competition from Amazon and Google, regulatorypressures, tariff troubles, and a rough quarter for the broader market. By theend, you’ll have a clear picture of what’s happening—and what might lie ahead.

Microsoft Stock PriceTests January 2024 Lows

On Monday,March 31, 2025, Microsoft shares fell 0.9%, closing the final session of thefirst quarter at $375.39. At one point during the day, however, the stockdropped more sharply, reaching $367.24 and testing its lowest level sinceJanuary 2024—a 15-month low.

Over theentire first quarter, Microsoft shares declined nearly 11%, continuing theirretreat from the record highs of 2024. From a peak of nearly $470, the stockhas now fallen more than 20%.

While it’slittle consolation for shareholders, Microsoft is not alone in its losses.Amazon dropped 1.28%, closing at $190.26 and hitting a six-month low.Meanwhile, the broader Nasdaq 100 index slid to its lowest level sinceSeptember last year.

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What’sdriving the sell-off in Microsoft shares? Let’s take a closer look.

Why Is Microsoft SharePrice Going Down? Key Drivers

Competition with Amazonand Google: A Cloud and AI Battle Royale

Microsoft’sAzure cloud platform is a crown jewel, but it’s locked in a fierce fight withAmazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud. Azure’s revenue grew 31% in thefiscal second quarter of 2025 (ended December 31, 2024), but it missed WallStreet’s 31.8% expectation. Meanwhile, AWS continues to dominate with a largermarket share, and Google Cloud is gaining ground with lower-cost AI offerings.

Amazon’sAWS benefits from its early-mover advantage and massive scale, while Google’sAI innovations—like cheaper models challenging Microsoft’s OpenAIpartnership—threaten to undercut Azure’s pricing power. For retail investors,this means Microsoft’s hefty $87 billion capital expenditure (capex) in 2025—up55% from last year—might not deliver the immediate returns Wall Street craves.

The worry?Microsoft’s pouring cash into AI and cloud infrastructure, but Amazon andGoogle could steal the spotlight if they scale faster or cheaper.

Regulatory Impacts:Antitrust Shadows Loom Large

U.S.Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is probing Microsoft’s cybersecurity deals withthe government, hinting at potential antitrust concerns over locking incustomers. Globally, its $69 billion Activision Blizzard acquisition stillfaces scrutiny, even after closing in 2023. While the UK’s Competition andMarkets Authority recently cleared Microsoft’s OpenAI partnership, theregulatory spotlight remains intense.

Regulatoryhurdles could delay Microsoft’s growth plans—like expanding AI through Azure—orlead to fines that dent profits. It’s not a dealbreaker, but it’s enough tospook the market, contributing to the stock’s 15-month low.

Tariff Impacts: A NewTrade Headache

Tariffs areback in the news, and Microsoft isn’t immune. In late 2024, President Trumpproposed a 25% tariff on non-U.S.-made cars, set to kick in on April 2, 2025.While Microsoft doesn’t make cars, tariffs ripple through the economy. Highercosts for imported tech hardware—like chips powering Azure’s data centers—couldsqueeze margins. Plus, if trade tensions escalate, Microsoft’s global supplychain (think China-made components) might face disruptions.

Retailinvestors might wonder: how big is this hit? It’s not catastrophic yet, butwith Microsoft spending billions on infrastructure, even small cost hikes addpressure. Analysts estimate tariffs could shave a few percentage points offprofitability if they broaden beyond cars—a risk worth watching.

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A Bad Quarter for S&P500, Nasdaq, and Wall Street

Zoom out,and Microsoft’s woes aren’t solo. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are reeling from atough Q1 2025. Stifel’s Barry Bannister predicts the S&P 500 could drop 26%to 4,700 by year-end after a 10% rally, citing overvaluation (21.4 timesearnings vs. a 10-year average of 18). The Nasdaq, heavy with tech stocks likeMicrosoft, feels the heat too. Wall Street’s mood soured after mixed earnings,with Microsoft’s own Q2 cloud miss fueling the gloom.

Aftertesting all-time highs in Q1 2025, the S&P 500 is now undergoing a sharpercorrection, falling 4.6% after six consecutive quarters of gains. Meanwhile,the tech-heavy Nasdaq has dropped nearly 9%, also retreating from its recordhighs.

$US$SPX#SP500 A quarter to forget for the S&P 500. Despite eking out a 0.6% gain on Monday, the equity benchmark posted its worst period versus the rest of the world since 2009. BBG pic.twitter.com/5j5uEs6sgO

— Marco Olevano, CFA (@MarcoOlevano) April 1, 2025

Microsoft Share PriceTechnical Analysis

Accordingto my technical analysis, Microsoft’s share price has broken below a keysupport zone that had held since early 2024, located between $385 and $390. Thestock also slipped beneath the 2025 year-to-date lows from early March,signaling further weakness.

The currentdecline has paused near a support level identified around the July 2023 highs,at approximately $367. This area was tested heavily in December 2023 and early2024, ultimately serving as a springboard for a stronger rebound.

Adding tothe bearish outlook, Microsoft shares have remained trapped within a clearlydefined downward regression channel for the past five months. This structurecontinues to pressure the price lower.

What doesthis mean? In my view, Microsoft has more room to fall than to rise at thispoint. I’ve identified the following key support levels to watch:

• $338.85 – corresponding to the September2023 highs
• $309 – the lows tested in August andSeptember 2023, which marked the beginning of Microsoft’s last significantrally

A move backabove the resistance zone marked in red on the chart would invalidate thebearish scenario. If that happens, the first upside target would be the Q4 2024lows, around $404, followed by the all-time high near $468. While this reboundseems unlikely for now, recent analyst forecasts suggest it cannot becompletely ruled out.

Microsoft Stock PricePredictions for 2025 and Beyond

Despitethe 15-month low, the outlook isn’t bleak. Here’s what experts are saying aboutMicrosoft’s stock in 2025 and beyond, including the latest from Stifel andothers:

• Stifel’sTake (March 6, 2025):Stifel cut its price target to $475 from $515, yet kept a “Buy” rating. Why thetrim? Analysts see Microsoft’s $87 billion 2025 capex as a gamble—huge AI bets(like Azure’s $10 billion genAI run rate) need time to pay off. They expectdouble-digit growth long-term but warn the stock might stay “range-bound” untilcloud revenue outpaces spending again.
• PiperSandler (March 25, 2025): Piper Sandler holds an “Overweight” rating with a $520 target—31% abovetoday’s price. They’re bullish on Azure’s momentum and Microsoft’s $100billion-plus cash flows, per X posts. AI leadership keeps them confident.
• MorganStanley: Calling ita “Strong Buy,” Morgan Stanley sees Microsoft hitting $500 by late 2025. Theyhighlight Office 365 and Teams anchoring steady revenue, even if cloud growthwobbles.

Microsoft Share Price NewsFAQ

Why Did Microsoft Stock GoDown?

Microsoftstock dropped to a 15-month low of $375 by April 1, 2025, due to a mix ofpressures. Azure’s cloud growth (31% in Q2 FY25) missed Wall Street’s loftyexpectations, facing stiff competition from Amazon AWS and Google Cloud.Regulatory scrutiny over cybersecurity deals and the Activision Blizzardacquisition rattled investors.

Why Is MicrosoftDeclining?

Microsoft’sdecline stems from short-term stumbles and broader economic woes. Regulatoryheadaches—like U.S. probes into government contracts—add uncertainty. Tariffscould hike costs for hardware powering Azure’s data centers, squeezing margins.Meanwhile, Wall Street’s tough quarter, with the S&P 500 overvalued at 21.4times earnings, has soured sentiment. It’s not a collapse—just a lull amid bigspending and market jitters.

Is Microsoft Expected toRise?

Yes,analysts expect Microsoft to rise in 2025 despite its current dip. Stifel cutits target to $475 (19.6% upside from $396.89) but kept a “Buy” rating, whilePiper Sandler ($520, 31% upside) and Morgan Stanley ($500, 26% upside) staybullish. The consensus average of $510.03 signals a 28.5% climb, driven byAzure’s $10 billion AI revenue run rate and Microsoft’s strong cash flows.

Can Microsoft Stock Reach$1000?

Yes, reaching$1,000 is a long shot by 2025, but not impossible long-term. Current 2025targets top out at $650 (per TipRanks’ high-end range), with CoinPriceForecastprojecting $850–$1,000 by 2030 if AI and cloud dominance hold.

Why Microsoft Is Not inFAANG?

You mightwonder: why isn’t Microsoft lumped with FAANG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple,Netflix, Google)? The term, coined in 2013 by Jim Cramer, spotlightedhigh-growth, consumer-facing tech stocks.

Microsoft,though a tech titan, didn’t fit the mold back then—it was seen as a legacysoftware giant, not a flashy growth story. Today, with Azure and AI, it rivalsFAANG in innovation, but the label stuck to its original crew (now often FAANGMwith Microsoft tacked on informally).

This article was written by Damian Chmiel at www.financemagnates.com.