President Donald J. Trump has often made “major” statements. But this time, he delivered. His announcement on Monday that it would send “high-end” weapons to Ukraine and to slap Russia with “serious” sanctions if it does not accept a cease-fire in the 50 days marks a turn of turn, especially for a man who only months earlier had intimidated the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval office.
Significantly, this decision was announced jointly with NATO secretary general, Mark Rutte, who was in the oval office with Trump. As usual, Trump did most of the word, but Rutte was clearly on board and confirmed the key details. In other words, it was not a unilateral decision by Trump or a question of whim, but a coordinated transatlantic effort which follows the optimistic summit of NATO in June that Rutte skillfully guided. It is progress.
The package, at least as initially announced, has a lot: patriotic missiles and perhaps patriotic batteries, sent immediately, Europeans pay them; A regular flow of more American weapons to Ukraine, coordinated with European governments and NATO, also with the payment of Europeans; And new economic pressure on Russia in the event of a ceasefire, including secondary prices up to 100% on countries that buy Russian oil.
Many, including me, would have preferred the United States to share the costs of new weapons for Ukraine with Europeans. Ukraine’s survival is also in the interest of America. But only two weeks ago, the Pentagon interrupted weapons transfers in Ukraine. A complete American abandonment of Ukraine seemed to take place, and Trump’s decision until Monday not approving new weapons for kyiv was a great incentive for Vladimir Putin to maintain his maximum objectives. He now says that he is “very, very unhappy” from Putin and has exhorted into Zelensky to intensify deep strikes inside Russia, reported the FT.
Critics of the package argued that the 50 -day deadline gives Russia time to continue beating Ukraine. It is an understandable reaction. But sending weapons to Ukraine now and threatening a new slice of economic pressure against Russia to make a cease -fire and, ultimately, an agreement to end the war – a priority of Trump that Zelensky accepted and Putin despised – could work like a punch, if the sanctions really bit.
Unfortunately, the new slice of economic pressure does not seem quite ready. The threat of 100% secondary prices alongside the BUPUMENTHAL GRAHAM bipartite bill which targets Russian oil sales is the right target. But prices of 100% or 500% against countries that buy a lot of Russian oil, including China and India, may not be practical given the complex network of trade and the provision of prices with these countries. The Graham-Blumenthal bill, which is making its way through the congress, could be made more feasible by offering a derogation if the countries kept “considerably” reducing oil purchases. It was an approach that gave results with Iran during the Obama administration.
However, this is the most energetic support of Ukraine Trump to date, and Zelensky now resumes his government for strong cooperation with Washington.
Trump’s U-turn seems partly the result of European leaders, Rutte in particular, who worked hard to develop common ground with the American president. It also seems to be the result of growing irritation with Putin. Trump said on Monday that Putin speaks “so beautifully” when it comes to a ceasefire but “then he will bomb people at night. We don’t like it. “
Recent American presidents, such as Trump, have courted better links with Putin. But all of them failed because the terms of the Russian president have always turned out to be the United States giving him a free hand for the oppression at home and the assault against his neighbors – in particular Georgia and Ukraine – which Putin treated as simple provinces of a restored Russian empire. Neither George W. Bush ni Obama, both of whom I worked for a certain time in the government, would accept these terms.
Six months after Trump’s second term, the United States and Europe finally seem to arrive on the same wavelength regarding Ukraine. The Russian economy is vulnerable. His war victims are enormous, all with a minimum of advances on the ground. Putin’s arrogance in the desire for total Ukrainian surrender could prove his fall, if only Trump sticks to his position.
