Stellar (XLM) spent the last month on the decline, falling 14.7% as overall market sentiment weakened. Over the past week, however, the price of XLM has remained mostly stable, suggesting that the correction may be nearing its end.
A few key on-chain and technical indicators now suggest that XLM’s buyer-seller logjam could soon break in favor of the bulls. Read on to find out how!
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The buyer-seller battle is visible
On the daily chart, XLM trades inside a symmetrical triangle – a trend that forms when buyers and sellers are evenly matched.attached. This reflects indecision, where lower highs and lower lows compress the price into a tighter range before a breakout.
The current model shows that the upper and lower trend lines of the triangle have only two contact points each, making the structure relatively weak on both sides. This pattern suggests that a breakout could occur with the slightest push, whether from buyers or sellers.
With neither side establishing firm control, even a brief burst of momentum could decide the next direction. The formation reflects a true buyer-ask standoff, where each minor price change tests conviction but fails to confirm a clear trend. In short, the next breakthrough may depend on which side acts first, not necessarily which side is stronger.
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This setup comes after a three-month decline of more than 19%, so even a modest rebound could mark the start of a broader recovery phase if momentum builds.
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Selling pressure fades quickly
The Wyckoff Volume Chart – which tracks buy and sell dominance with color-coded bars – supports this reading. The yellow bars, representing sales activity, have been decreasing steadily since yesterday. This reduction shows that sellers are gradually retreating while buyers begin to absorb the available supply.
Interestingly, a similar trend emerged between October 17 and 18, when the reduction in sales volume preceded a 15.1% rise in XLM prices shortly after. The same structure now appears to be reforming, reinforcing the idea that downside risk exhaustion is near. However, for complete confirmation of the seller’s specific weakness, blue or green bars should appear.
Key Levels to Watch for XLM Price Rebound
Zooming in on the chart, XLM price continues to respect the lower trendline of the triangle, indicating that $0.30 remains a strong support level. If prices hold above $0.30, this level, a move towards $0.33 is likely, completing a 7.8% rally.
A break above $0.33 could pave the way to $0.35 and eventually $0.39. Note that even if a push past $0.33 breaks the upper trendline of the triangle, it is already considered just as weak, as the line only has two points of contact.
This shows that if XLM price peaks, a breakout higher could be easier than a breakout.
However, if XLM loses $0.30, the next key support lies around $0.28. However, a breakout of $0.30 would mean a break of the trendline, which could send the price of XLM lower.
For now, the disappearance of Wyckoff’s sell signals and a stable base near $0.30 indicate optimism. This means that buyers could finally regain control of Stellar’s (XLM) price structure, provided market conditions do not deteriorate.
